The Talking Plank - Week 1

The Talking Plank –





Bucs At Saints:

With the opening game of the season occurring in a recently battered New Orleans, it’s really hard to gauge how the Saints will come out and play. They practiced in Indy and that might have really messed with their rhythm, or it might not have. The Bucs, meanwhile, are getting some guys back healthy who were limited in practice earlier in the week. Assuming the core offensive players play, the following will should hold true.

On offense, the Bucs will be facing a defense that is still not great. While the Saints are looking for an improved defensive line, they don’t seem likely to get it. The linebacking corps is stronger now with Vilma in the middle, but it’s still not great. And the defensive backs are still a weakness, with McKenzie being banged up a bit in the last game. The Bucs will likely pound the ball right at the Saints’ defensive line, and should have success. If the Bucs can establish the run early they’ll be able to pass the ball with a lot of success, assuming Garcia’s arm is working right again, and not what we saw in the preseason game. So far, the Bucs have had little trouble moving the ball well and converting third downs during the preseason, and I think it will translate. With Graham and Dunn the likely ball carriers, the running game will have the threat of becoming a passing game to the runners which should make it very difficult for the Saints to defend the Bucs offense consistently. The Bucs may not score a ton of points in this game, but they will score a good bit.

On defense, the Bucs will be facing one of the better offenses they’ll play all year. With Brees throwing the ball to some talented skill players, the pass defense and pass rush will be the keys to this game. With McAllister’s knee banged up, and Stecker’s hamstring pulled, the Bucs should be able to stop Bush and McAllister (I doubt McAllister will have full strength and cut back ability from that knee). The Bucs have been stronger in the pass rush department this preseason, and I expect to see that continue with Adams, Wilkerson, White, Haye, and Sims providing the best chances to get to Brees. Without Faine playing Center for New Orleans, the Bucs should have an easier time getting to Brees. Ironically, despite a sub-par pass rush last year and a low sack allowance by the Saints, the Bucs got 5 sacks on Brees in two games. So far, the Bucs look to have finally gotten back to being a defense that gets teams off the field after third down, having held all 4 preseason teams under 40% on third down conversions with an average of just 27% allowed. I expect the Bucs will make it very difficult for the Saints to get into a flow, and will keep the Saints from scoring a lot of points. We may even see a dominant defensive effort if the Bucs’ offense holds onto the ball enough.

On special teams, the Bucs will look to have Matt Bryant continue to recover from the bad misses. He seemed to get himself straightened out during the Texans game, but now that the games count, he needs to make sure he nails them. Ironically, he will be squaring off against former Bucs kicker Martin Gramatica. This may or may not be a good thing for the Bucs. The punters are both good ones, but Bidwell is a little better at downing punts inside the 20 than Weatherford. The return game will be interesting to see. The Saints appear to not be using Bush, and will apparently go with Moore and Thomas on punts and kicks. The Bucs will be putting their hopes all on Dexter Jackson. I think Jackson may have a very good game, but we’ll see. The Bucs have had pretty strong coverage teams this preseason, so we’ll see if that translates into the game.

Once all is said and done, I believe the Bucs will come out, maybe start out a little slow on offense, but will keep the ball a long time with that running game. In the end they’ll start putting up some points while the defense gets after Brees and company. Down the stretch the Bucs will win this game and start out 1-0.

Bucs 24 Saints 17