Bucs 2006 Season Predictions

As it is my custom, I will provide, starting with this post, a preview of all 16 games and my predictions for them. As with every year that I've done this (on a separate page at my old site), I can't really factor in injuries, or change of starters that occur during the season. I try to factor in how I think the team will play based on the match-ups as I see them today. These views may change during the year, which is why I always had a Talking Plank article to preview each game a day or two before it occurred. I will probably still make such write-ups, though they won't have the nice little position match-ups that my old site did. Simply takes too much time. In order to keep this post from being too long, I will preview the season in 4 posts, with 4 teams per post (wow! I can do math!). So, without further adieu, here's the first 4 games, aka the first quarter of the season.

Vs. Ravens:

With the pick-up of Steve McNair, the Ravens are hoping to finally get their offense going again. Of course, opening the season against the league's top defense is not exactly the best way to show off your new QB. The Bucs defense will primarily focus on shutting down Jamal Lewis, who hasn't been up to par recently. Should the Bucs stop the Ravens' rushing attack, which I believe they will, then they should be able to expose a McNair who's skills are on the decline. Where the Bucs will have the biggest test will be against the Ravens' unique defense. With Ray Lewis in the middle, it will be hard to run straight at them. With Caddy, however, the Bucs can run at the Ravens' edges, especially with LB Peter Boulware gone. More importantly, the Ravens lost a number of secondary players, leaving them vulnerable to the Bucs' talented corps of receivers, especially if a starter goes down. If the Bucs can get some semblance of a running game, and hold up against the hoard of blitzes that the Ravens will use, then the Bucs offense should have some success in the passing game. Overall, though, I expect a defensive battle, that the Bucs will pull out.

Bucs 16-10

At Atlanta:

Unlike last season, the Bucs will start playing their division foes early. In the second week they will go up against Atlanta. What has become clear is that Vick appears to have hit his plateau as a passer. I don't think he will get any better than he his now, and was last season. Last year, due to a lack of pressure up front, he was able to burn us with some long passes. The Falcons' running game also was a triple threat, but is now reduced to Vick and Dunn with Duckett having been shipped off. Without that big bruiser up front, the Falcons will find it much harder to establish a running game against the Bucs. And with an apparently improved pass rush from the front four (at least by Preseason example), the Bucs should be able to keep Vick uncomfortable and more prone to making a killer mistake. The Falcons' defense, however, brought in some players, including Abraham, to try and make their defense better. I don't think it will be enough to counter our talent, and I think their defensive line will simply be way too small to handle our offensive line in the running game. I expect the Bucs to pound the ball early, and often, and then hit the play action pass. In the end, I think the Bucs will be too much for the Falcons.

Bucs 24-17

Vs. Carolina:

Carolina comes to town in the third week with a reduced running threat, but an improved passing threat. They also come with a defense that has its entire defensive line back intact. The Bucs defense will likely make life difficult for the Panthers' offense, and we should see Keyshawn taking a few nasty hits and making little impact of note. Smith will be a little harder to contain, but the Bucs should be able to do enough on defense to hold the Panthers' offense down for most of the game. Where the Bucs will have real problems is on the offensive side of the ball, where a young offensive line will have its hands full with the Panthers' front four. I expect to see Simms running for his life and going down more than I would like to see due to the Panthers' front four. Caddy will also find it hard to get an real room to run, though, if he makes it past the defensive line, he could rip off some big runs against a depleted set of linebackers. In the end, though, a tough defensive battle will come down to points off turnovers, where I think the Panthers will have a slight edge.

Panthers 13-12

At New Orleans:

With a new year comes renewal for the Saints as they should be back in the Superdome for their season opener. As such, expect the Bucs to play there and have to deal with some new threats on offense. The Saints will be gunning at the Bucs with new QB Drew Brees, with Reggie Bush running the ball with Deuce McAllister. The Saints have, however, lost TE Boo Williams, C Bentley, and G Jacox. All of which gave the Bucs defense some fits. Needless to say, the Saints have a revamped offensive line that may or may not hold up against the Bucs. With a new QB, the Saints offense should still be feeling itself around when they face the Bucs. It will also help that the Saints lost WR Hakim as well. The Bucs defense must key on the running game and get after Brees. I expect to see the Bucs' defense make life difficult for Brees. The Bucs offense will also be going against a defense that has lost some key players, including Safety Dwight Smith and DE Darren Howard. The Bucs offensive line should be able to deal with the Saints' Tackles. The Ends are may or may not be a problem for the Bucs. Grant wasn't very effective last year, but Smith was. I expect Smith to continue to be strong at DE, but Grant either had a slip for the year, or he's declining fast. If the Bucs can consistently run at the Tackles, where I think Caddy can do some serious damage, then Grant and Smith will be less effective against the pass, and that will allow Simms to take advantage of a weakened Saints secondary, especially the Safeties. In the end, I expect the Bucs will have too much firepower on offense for the Saints' defense to handle.

Bucs 27-17

By my predictions, I look for the Bucs to go 3-1 during the first quarter of the season. I will add additional quarters in the next couple of days to round out the season, and give my overall outlook.