The Talking Plank - Week 1

The Talking Plank-





Bucs At Seahawks:

If you've read my 2007 Season Prediction (posted below) you'll already know who I'm predicting to win, and what I think the score will be. Now's the time for me to go in-depth and explain my reasoning. We've just seen the Saints get shredded on the road, and road teams generally have a tough time starting the season out like this, but teams do win their openers on the road enough to have hope. More importantly, as you begin to look at this match-up, you begin to realize that the overall roster talent may favor the Bucs.

On Offense, the Bucs will be facing a defense that's not as banged up as last year, but has already lost DL Tubbs for the season, and has had some turnover in some other key positions. They have Trufant at corner and Grant at safety, as well as Tatupu and Peterson at Linebacker. Beyond that, they aren't overly impressive at any position other than Kerney at DE, though he's never really been a big thorn to us. The Bucs new look line should be able to open holes against the likes of Tapp and Darby. While Sears is a rookie, he's very well coached and shouldn't take nearly the time to acclimate as Joseph and Trueblood. Pettigout is a vet, and his impact will be immediate. The Bucs should also be able to give Garcia plenty of time to pass without having to keep two tight ends, and that will spread the Seahawks' defense out, which will, in turn, allow Caddy room to run. I expect the Bucs to start out trying to open it with the pass, the switching to the run. If the running game starts producing early, you'll see a ton of it (25-30 carries). The Bucs should be able to get players open and I expect to see the offense move the ball effective for most of the game. It will have to, as the offense will need to carry the defense for most of the game.

On Defense, the Bucs should be able to get after Hasselbeck at times, and they'll likely make it hard for Alexander to consistently rip off yardage, but both players will make some plays against this defense. The lack of experience will cause some messed up plays, and it will take several games before the defense really gets into a groove. How Jackson holds up in the secondary will be key, but I do like the match-up of our linebackers on Pollard and Heller (their TE's). I also think we can make life difficult for the Seahawks' receivers. The problem is that the defense will give up some drives and scores do to those mistakes and the likely lack of a consistent pass rush. Adams will have a hard time getting past Jones, and the rest of the line may have a tough time getting a consistent rush on Hasselbeck, as they can't get caught running by Alexander. The defense will give up more points then we like, but they'll do just enough to allow our offense to outscore theirs.

On Special Teams, both come in with similarly capable units. The Bucs will go with a committee approach on punts and kicks, but it's unlikely we'll see any breakthrough returns. If we do, it could tip the balance in favor of the Bucs. I don't envision the Seahawks' having any huge returns against the Bucs, though the Bucs will miss Cox in coverage. The Seahawks' have a little bit of a better FG kicker than us, but the punters are roughly even with a slight edge to us. If it rains, the weather could become a factor on field goals and it's hard to tell which team can be favored here.

In the end, I think the Bucs, having a much better offensive line, and an improved linebacking and safety corps, will be able to do just enough on both sides of the ball to pull off the upset.

Bucs 24 Seattle 21