The Talking Plank - Week 7

The Talking Plank -





Bucs At Lions:

With the Bucs off to a solid start at 4-2, and having managed to beat a physical Titans team, the Bucs now go on the road to face a Lions team that isn't nearly as physical. The Lions are, in my opinion, a somewhat soft team. They have 3 wins, but you look at two of their losses to the Eagles and Redskins and you see that they can be blown out, though both of those were on the road. The Bucs are 1-2 on the road and 3-0 at home, while the Lions have won their 2 home games and one on the road. So what can we expect?

On Offense, the Bucs, 23rd in points (18/g), 25th total offense (297y/g), 22nd passing (197.8y/g), and 19th rushing (99.1y/g), will be facing one of the worst defenses in the league. The Lions are 31st in points allowed (31/g), 29th in total offense (378.6y/g), 30th against the pass (263.6y/g), and 17th against the run (115y/g). Teams have exploited the Lions poor secondary and it's inability to stop the running game and its lack of pass rush (14 sacks). The Lions are also allowing 47.8% of third downs to be converted against them. This is leading to a team that will have a lot of difficulties making Garcia uncomfortable or stopping his receivers from getting open. Galloway should be able to take advantage of the intermediate middle of the field, and Garcia should have time to find him or someone else getting open deeper down the field. The Lions may give up on the run and try to blitz and rush hard, but if they do, they will be susceptible to screens and draws, two plays you can bet that the Bucs have been getting Bennett ready to run, as he can burn them big with those plays. The Bucs should be able to get some good rushing lanes opened up against this defensive line, which hasn't been all that impressive against the run. The key will be getting a hat on the Lions' decent linebackers, especially Ernie Sims. If they can do that, then Graham and Bennett should have some opportunities to get some quality runs. The Lions don't have the very light very fast DL of Indy, and they don't have the mountains like the Titans, so we should see a much better effort in the run game. I fully expect the Bucs to put up some serious points on this defense. They've throttled weaker defenses all year long, and I don't expect that to change now.

On Defense, the Bucs are currently 5th in points allowed (14.5/g), 12 in total defense (314y.g), 8th against the pass (194.7y/g), and 21st against the run (119.3y/g). They will face the Lions 9th scoring offense (23.4/g), 14th total (338.6y/g), 5th passing (265.4y/g), and 31st rushing (73.2y/g). Teams have been attacking the Bucs consistently on the ground because of the play of the secondary. This has had limited success with really the Colts being the only team that did it consistently as they were able to hit the throws underneath all game long and get good rushing yards. The Lions are a pass first team, however, and one whose scheme is well known to the Bucs, and has been well defended through the years with only one bad game (the MNF game against the Rams in 2000). Martz's offense will find it difficult to be effective against this back 7, which has really only allowed success with the short dump off passes. Martz wants to go long or intermediate most of the time, and with the Lions giving up 28 sacks in 5 games, Kitna will find it hard to stay upright against a Bucs' DL that has been getting to the QB more and more each week, including 3 sacks against a very solid Titans' OL. Kitna's already thrown 6 picks so far, and the Lions are only converting 28% of their 3rd downs. This offense will likely have a very long day against the Bucs unless they can use their size advantage against the DB's. The Lions have a hard time sustaining runs, and the Bucs aren't exactly an easy team to run on (see the Titans). I can see 4 sacks and a number of picks, or at least opportunities for them, in this game. If that happens, it could get ugly for the Lions.

On Special Teams, the Bucs and Lions are both solid at the Kicker and Punter positions, though Hansen has been a little shaky so far this season. The punt return teams are both returning around 10 yards per punt, while the Bucs kick returns are getting 25.1 yards per return, and the Lions are getting 23.7 per. The coverage teams are different, however. The Lions are allowing 13.1 and 26.5 yards per punt and kick return, while the Bucs are allowing 9.1 and just 15.8 per punt and kick return. The Lions have both gotten and given up a TD on kicks, which bodes well for the Bucs' kick return game. This is another game where Jones will have a shot to take one back, which he only got once last week, due to touchbacks, and had a big return against the Titans. If Hansen's kicks are returnable, Jones might have a big day. This unit should give the Bucs' offense good field position all game long.

Overall, I expect the Bucs to go in there and win this game. It might be easy, but the Lions usually find a way to play us real tough. Having Marinelli and Barry across the field will make it a little tougher, though a good number of our players weren't here last year, and more weren't here when Rod was last here in 2005. If the Bucs play like they are capable of, going up there determined to play hard and with few mistakes, they will win the game, and could win it big. I expect some mistakes though, and a tighter score than I would like.

Bucs 24 Lions 17