The Talking Plank - Week 2

The Talking Plank - Week 2




Falcons At Bucs:

With the loss at New Orleans, the Bucs come back home needing a win to get back on track. The Bucs have already changed QB's, and look to be able to take advantage of the plays that were there against the Saints that Garcia missed (such as Galloway being wide open in the endzone on the 4th down play that Garcia threw the pick on). The Falcons come in here after running all over the Lions (something that keeps happening to them). So are the Falcons for real? Or did they simply exploit a big weakness of the Lions?

On Offense, the Bucs come in ranked 15th in points (20/g), 10th in yards (352/g), 12th passing (206/g), and 9th rushing (146/g). The Falcons' defense comes in ranked 20th in points allowed (21/g), 16th in total yards (308/g), 28th in passing (246/g), and 5th against the run (62/g). Since we only have one week's worth of numbers, it's hard to fully gauge team strenghts and weaknesses, but it was clear, by the comeback allowed, that the Falcons' defense is suspect against the pass. This makes sense when you realize that their secondary sucks. Their defensive line isn't all that great, save Abraham. So if he's not getting a lot of pressure, there isn't a lot of help to get the QB down. The one strength of the Falcons is their LB's with Brooking and Boley, though Lofton is a rook at the Mike spot. The Falcons are fast enough at the LB spot to make it somewhat hard to run, especially at the edges, but they aren't impossible, by any means. The Bucs will undoubtably try to impose their will up front and get Graham and Dunn going. Once that is accomplished, Griese should be able to use our wideouts and tight ends to expose that weak secondary. If the Bucs do get that run game going, they'll probably be able to sustain drives with some big plays through the air, something that was available last week, but for which Garcia struggled to take advantage of. Make no mistake, Atlanta will be focused on stopping the run. But, in the end, I don't think they have the horses to stop this offense unless Griese has some pick 6 moments, which I think he'll avoid. Look for this offense to put some points up and chew up a lot of clock.

On Defense, the Bucs come in uncharacteristically ranked low, 24th in points allowed (24/g), 28th in total yards (438/g), 31st against the pass (337/g), and 11th against the run (101/g). The Falcons' offense comes in ranked 5th in points (34/g), 3rd in total yards (474/g), 24th passing (156/g), and 1st rushing (318/g). The whole Lions' game boils down to Atlanta's running game. Turner was able to run ragged over a weak Lions' run defense and make them look stupid. He averaged 10 yards per carry on 22 carries (do the math - 220 yards). If you think the Bucs are going to let that happen...think again. The Bucs actually played great defense against the Saints on 55 of the Saints' 60 plays. Those 5 plays accounted for over half of the Saints' offense and three of their TD's (21 of 24 points). Those 5 breakdowns (2 of which had blatant holds - the Gaines tackle on one, and Haye being held on another the first TD pass) cost the Bucs that game. The Bucs have games like that every once and a while, but it was clear in the preseason that this defense will, far more often than not, clamp down on opposing offenses, and I can guarantee you that a lot was said after that game. They also get the advantage of seeing what happened to the Lions, who employ the same defense (though they suck at it). While Brooks may or may not play, the defense will likely hold up much better this week. Atlanta does have some beef on the line, but the Bucs can counter with Sims at UT on running downs to really clog it up. If Brooks is out, June will likely slide over, and Black will probably start at Sam, as that gives the Bucs their second best set of LB's. Where the Bucs should really be at an advantage is if Matt Ryan is forced to pass, which is what the Bucs want. The Bucs' secondary had some slipping issues that appeared to hinder defenders on two of the TD bombs (Aqib's feet didn't seem to have good footing when he jumped for that pass, and Barber lost his feet and slipped). They'll be on the excellent Ray Jay surface, and they should be able to hang with Atlanta's limited number of viable pass targets. If they slow the running game down and force Matt to throw, with a hostile crowd (he only threw 13 passes last week), then the Bucs should be able to get some heat on him and force some errant throws. The Bucs got in Brees face on a few occasions and even caused a pick 6. Ryan isn't Brees and isn't likely to be able deal with this defense nearly as well. I believe we'll see the defense return to form and clamp down on the Atlanta offense. They love challenges like this, and will rise to the occasion.

On Special Teams, the Bucs have the better punter in Bidwell, but the Falcons have the better kicker in Elam. In the punt return game, Dexter Jackson returned 5 punts for 5.8 yards, but got better after he took a big hit, as his next return went for 14 yards. Where he shined was in kick returns where he averaged 28 yards per return on 3 returns with a long of 33. The Falcons returned punts with Jennings who averaged a whopping 3 yards per return (means he'll probably return it for a TD against us), and they got 32.5 yards per return on kicks using Norwood. Definite edge to the Bucs, especially if Jackson continues to improve. In the coverage arena, the Bucs allowed just 5 yards per punt, and 13.4 yards per kick, which is outstanding. The Bucs hope to continue that this week, looking much like they did last year. The Falcons didn't have any punts returned (2 fair catches), but allowed 20.5 yards per kick return. Solid coverage teams, but probably not as good as the Bucs. If it comes down to field position, the Bucs should have the edge, but if it comes down to a FG, it really depends. Matt Bryant hit both field goals last week, and appears to be over his misses during preseason. So distance may be the factor where Elam would be considered the favorite. I expect the Bucs to have favorable field position most of the game, and to keep the Falcons pinned back a lot, similar to what they did to the Saints, with the defense holding this time.

When all is said and done, I think the Bucs will be on a mission to get the win on the board and to restore order to their defense, as the tackling and assignments usually start to get good around week 2, historically speaking. The offense will move the ball much more consistently with Griese, and they will score some points. In the end, the Bucs will win this game.

Bucs 24 Falcons 17