The Talking Plank - Week 1

The Talking Plank - Week 1: Ravens at Bucs:




With the opening of the Bucs' 2006 Season, they host the Baltimore Ravens, a team that went 6-10 last year despite having the 5th rated defense. This year, the Ravens hope to improve their offense in the hope that they can turn their team into a playoff contender. The Bucs, having won the NFC South last year, but bowing out in the first playoff game, would like to improve their team enough to go deep into the playoffs and possibly push for the Super Bowl. Now both teams get their first real assessment of how they have done this off-season.

On Offense, the Bucs look to face a tough defense that primarily lines up in a 3-4, but adjusts frequently to 4-3 and 46 alignments. The Ravens basically tend to line up their guys in a way they feel gives them the best match-ups. Even their depth chart currently lists their players in a 4-3 defensive front. The Ravens did lose Michael Boulware, which will hurt them at linebacker, and that will cause them some issues in their run defense. The Bucs will likely need to run at the edges as often as possible, and get Ray Lewis out of the area of the ball carrier. Simms will need Caddy to have a good game or he will be facing an array of blitzes when he steps back to pass. With Joseph out, and Buenning likely out, the Bucs will find it hard running and protecting up the middle. If the Ravens have a weakness on defense, it's the passing game, though I wouldn't call them weak. If the Bucs can get a decent running game going, Simms will be able to take advantage of some of his talented receivers. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Bucs take a deep shot to Galloway very early to try and force the Ravens to play the whole field. Should the Bucs get some semblance of an offense going, it could make all the difference in the world. We could also see the Ravens' defense pull a Bills D, and melt in the second half. It will be hot, and I expect the Ravens defense to have problems if we can establish a running game. As it is, I expect the offense to struggle at times, but get just enough plays to score a few times.

On Defense, the Bucs will be facing a big offensive line, but one that isn't tremendously athletic. The last time the Bucs played the Ravens, 3 of the 5 were playing, and the Bucs defensive line was able to use it's speed to cut by and around this offensive line. I expect the same, however, the Bucs offense must hold the ball for at least 30 minutes or the defensive line could get worn down. With Jamal Lewis banged up, I expect the Bucs to be able to handle him, assuming the linebackers get clean looks. The receivers that McNair will have to throw too, will have a hard time catching balls against the Bucs corners. Generally, the small quick guys usually have problems against Barber and Kelly, unless they can burn by them. Since I expect McNair to be under pressure when he throws, I don't think the Raven's receivers will be very effective. The key, of course, will be shutting Lewis down with the front 7. If the Bucs can do that, then they will make it very difficult for the Ravens to get open. One factor the Bucs defense must account for is Todd Heap. He's a very good TE, even though he's struggled mightily in the prior two meetings with the Bucs ('01 and '02). Overall, I expect the Bucs defense to be very stout and keep the Ravens offense in check for most of the game.

On Special Teams, the Bucs will be starting this season with Pittman returning kicks, which should help the Bucs get much better starting field position, which will be key in this game. Pittman has the perfect style of running for this type of return. He just needs to keep the ball in his hands, and the Bucs should have an advantage here. Mark Jones will field Punts, while Bidwell and Bryant will be doing the punting and kicking. The Ravens' return teams haven't been all that great in Preseason, and we'll see if that carries over into the regular season. Their coverage teams were mixed; solid on kicks and poor on punts. So there should be some opportunities.

This game should be a good defensive battle with just a smattering of offense here and there. in the end, with the heat, assuming it doesn't stay overcast or rain a lot, and with the home field advantage, I expect the Bucs to pull out this game in the end. As such, even with the injuries to Joseph and Buenning, I still expect the same result and score as I predicted a couple days ago.

Bucs 16 Ravens 10