The Talking Plank - Week 13

The Talking Plank - Week 13: At Pittsburgh




The Bucs are heading up to Pittsburgh to play in what looks to be around 40 degrees at kickoff, and dropping into the upper 30's by late game time. Shouldn't be too bad of weather, but will the Bucs be able to bring anything to the table? Will they, or Pittsburgh, win what is basically a meaningless game that can only lower a team's draft selection?

On Offense, the Bucs will be facing a defense that is in the middle of the pack against the pass, and 10th against the run, having not allowed a 100 yard rusher all year. They will be without SS Polamalu, so that will certainly help the Bucs in the passing department. But what will hurt them is the fact that Buenning is now out, meaning they will be playing with Mahan at LG. That's doesn't bode well against a strong, blitzing 3-4 defense. But if the offensive line can hold up, Gradkowski will have opportunities to torch the Steelers' secondary. Whether or not he connects...well, that's the big question. Caddy may find the running lanes hard to come by, and this might be a good game to start off pounding the ball with Alstott, much like the Bucs did against the Redskins. Wear down the Steelers' linebackers a little, and the room for Caddy to run may present itself. Haggans and Porter, the Steelers' starting OLB's, are both a little banged up, as is Porter's back-up Harrison. So the Bucs need to get physical early and really pound these guys. In a game without meaning, the most physical team can usually start to take over, especially if they can build a lead. If Bruce has time to throw, and can hit some deep balls, and the Bucs pound the ball a lot, they might have a shot at putting up some points. It will be tough, though.

On Defense, the Bucs will, thankfully, not have to deal with Hines Ward, who is out for this game. They will have to deal with Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington, who are both averaging over 15 yards per reception, and that's a little scary. The one thing that may help the Bucs' defense out is that big Ben has been sacked 36 times, and Batch 3 times. That's 39 sacks that the Steelers have given up, or roughly a sack per 10 pass attempts. To put that into perspective, the Bucs have only given up 21 sacks in 365 pass attempts (1 per 17+ attempts). So if Wyms can play, the Bucs might be able to get after the QB and pick up some sacks. The Steelers run the ball very well, but the Bucs defense has been stingy against the run since McFarland's departure. Most of the success against the defense on the ground has come late in games when the defense has been on the field for over 30 minutes because the offense couldn't do anything. So the big key is likely to be whether or not the Bucs' secondary can step it up and play well enough to keep from getting burned deep and on 3rd and long. It's been a problem all season, so I'm not hopeful, but there have been times. If Phillips struggles again, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Bucs give someone else a shot back there. I think the Steelers are going to have problems with pass protection, and that alone might save us from being scored on a lot. And, of course, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the Steelers' horrendous -12 turn over differential. Of course, the Bucs are -8, but many of those came early with Simms 7 picks in 3 games. If the defense can get some turnovers, that will limit the Steelers' offense and give our offense the short field. That might be enough, but I'm not giving us a lot of hope in that area as we've had difficulty forcing turnovers. I think the Bucs will hold up much better than in the last game, and that may or may not be enough.

On Special Teams, the Bucs have the better kicker and punter, and both teams are about even on punt coverage and returns. The Steelers have a slightly better kick return team, but a noticeably worse kick coverage team. The Bucs may be able to get good field position from kickoffs, and that might provide the Bucs with some short fields, which they'll need. So I give a slight edge to the Bucs on Special Teams, and believe the Bucs could win the game if it came down to the play of this unit.

The Steelers are favored by a TD in this game, and I think that's a possible outcome, though I would say the Bucs have a shot. The Steelers have some real issues that the Bucs might be able to take advantage of if their young talent starts playing up to it's ability. I don't have too much confidence in that, but I won't rule it out. In the end, I have to give a slight lean to the Steelers. If the offense can hit some deep balls, and the defense can get some turnovers and sacks, I think the Bucs will win it, but I'm not confident enough in those areas.

Steelers 17 Bucs 13