The Talking Plank - Week 4

The Talking Plank -





Bucs At Panthers:

Who knew that this game would end up being one to determine the lead in the Division after the 1st quarter of the season. Before the season began I predicted a Bucs win in this game, but I didn't think the Panthers would look as good as they have. Of course, Buc killer Jake Delhomme looks to be out of the game this week, which means Carr will be leading the Panthers' offense. Will it be enough for the Bucs to win this game? Let's take a look.

On Offense, the Bucs, ranked 22nd in yards (312 yds/g), but 13th running, will face the 23rd ranked defense (342 yds/g), 2st against the pass (246.7 yds/g)and 13th against the run (95 yds/g). Teams have, so far, exploited the Panthers secondary, which isn't all that great. Much like the game with the Saints, the Bucs should be able to take advantage of this match-up. Furthermore, the Panthers' linebacking crew is banged up in the middle with Dan Morgan listed as Out and Adam Seward (the backup Mike) listed as Questionable. If the Bucs can move Jenkins and Kemoeatu, they should be able to exploit the middle on runs, but that's easier said than done. Rucker is listed with a toe injury, so running to the perimeter at rookie Beason could be more advantageous. If the Bucs can get something of a running game going, the Bucs should be able to open the offense deep and beat the Panthers' secondary. I expect the Bucs to have some struggles with the running game, but the line's play has been steadily improving and they should get enough to keep the Panthers honest. That should allow time for Garcia to hit his targets, slowing up the pass rush. What's amazing is that the Panthers have only managed to get 2 sacks this season, and that bodes well for holding up the pass rush and burning the secondary. This is going to be a tough game for the Bucs to move the ball consistently, but they'll do it enough to put some points on the board. If they give Garcia all day, though, the offense could explode on the Panthers similar to what it did to the Saints.

On Defense, the Bucs 12th ranked offense (310.3 yds/g), 5th in points allowed (12.3/g), will be facing the Panthers' 12th ranked offense (351 yds/g), 19th passing (208.7 yds/g) and 6th rushing (142.3 yds/g). The Bucs defense is 9th against the pass (185.7 yds/g) and 21st against the run (124.7 yds/g), which creates something of a poor match-up against the Panthers' offense. The one thing that the Bucs have going in their favor, however, is that Delhomme is doubtful for the game, meaning Carr is likely to start. Carr got sacked once on just 4 pass attempts against the Falcons (who have just 7 on the season, 3 against the Panthers). He takes a lot of sacks. The Bucs will need to put the heat on and get Carr down as often as possible. Only twice in Carr's career he's managed to throw more TD's than picks, and that's only by a 3 in '05 and 2 in '04. He gets picked and sacked a lot and throws for few TD's. If the Bucs can get some pressure on him, they should be able to rattle him and force some mistakes. The team that's made the mistakes, in this series, is the one that's usually lost the game. The Bucs secondary will have to account for Smith, as always, but Colbert and Carter should be containable with our secondary. So far, the Bucs' secondary has been nearly dominant, as they aren't getting a lot of pressure help from the defensive line. This week, though, I expect to see some pressure, especially if Kalil plays at guard. If the secondary gets help from the defensive line, then they should be able to neutralize the passing game. The big key, however, will be with the linebackers. Ruud, Brooks, and June MUST stop, or at least slow down, the Panthers rushing attack, led by Foster and Williams. The Bucs have slowed them down before, so it's not impossible. If they can do that and force the Panthers to pass, they should be able to make it difficult for the Panthers to consistently move the ball, and the gap control and tackling by the linebackers will be the key in forcing them to go to the air. I believe the Bucs will slow down the Panthers' rushing attack enough to force the Panthers to ride Carr's arm, and that's where the Bucs secondary will get a chance to make a couple of turnovers to keep Carolina from moving the ball too much.

On Special Teams, the Bucs are currently one of the top units in returns and coverage. The Bucs are only allowing an unbelievably low 13.5 yards per kick return. While the yards per return allowed on punts is still 12.2, the reality is that one long punt is the only thing keeping that number up. The Bucs haven't in fact, even allowed many punt returns this season. The Bucs allowed 63 yards on 6 returns during the Seahawks' game. Since then, they've allowed just 10 yards. The coverage teams, which started out a little sluggish in the first week, have become dominant. With the Panthers averaging 8 yard per punt and 20.2 yards per kick, look to see that trend continue. Special teams coverage units could be huge by forcing the Panthers to go the length of the field on most drives. The Panthers are only allowing 7 yards per punt return, but are giving up 26.2 yards per kick return. The Bucs' return teams have been outstanding these last two games since Mark Jones came back. Jones has averaged 15 yards per punt return and 36 yards per kick return. What looked like a poor unit the first week, has become a strength, and giving the offense a short field to work with is paramount to winning this game. The Bucs need some short drives so that they can apply pressure to the Panthers' defense. The kickers and punters are pretty similar in numbers, so I don't see a distinct advantage in either. I expect the Bucs to consistently force the Panthers into long drives while giving the offense good field position to start its own.

This is a tough game to call, and this match-up is hard to figure out. I think, however, that the Bucs are more likely to pull a game out like 2005, than to suffer the one they had last year. In the end, I think the Bucs' defense will get the best of Carr, and the improve line will allow Garcia, the best QB we've had here since Young, to beat the Panthers poor secondary. That will be enough to allow the Bucs to escape with a win and the division lead.

Bucs 17 Panthers 13