The Talking Plank - Week 8

The Talking Plank -





Jaguars At Bucs:

With the Bucs coming off a disappointing loss to the Lions, and the Jaguars coming off a loss to the Colts on a short week, both teams will be looking to try and get their seasons moving forward again. The Bucs will be trying to defend their home field in a game that they need to win to avoid a losing streak. It's important that they manage to still win with their current injuries and get to the BYE week, where most of their non-IR injured players will be healthy enough to come back. Staying healthy won't be easy against a physical Jaguars team. In a lot of ways, the Jaguars and Titans are almost mirror images, so it's not likely that the Bucs will see anything they aren't used to seeing.

On Offense, the Bucs come in ranked 24th in total yards (314.9/g), 25th in points (17.7/g), 19th in rushing yards (102.7/g), and 18th in passing yards (212.1g). They will be up against the Jags' number 13 defense in total yards (318/g), 2nd in points (14.5/g), 13th in rushing yards allowed (103.8/g), and 17th in passing yards allowed (214.2/g). The Jags come in with one of those big Defensive lines that have historically given the Bucs problems. So far this season, with the exception of last week's game in Detroit, the bigger lines haven't really been very effective against the Bucs. When these teams met in the Pre-Season, the Bucs OL held up well against the Jags DL, which was a welcome change from prior seasons. Stroud has an ankle problem and Heyward has a hamstring issue, so neither will likely be 100% effective. Henderson could be a problem like Rodgers last week, but this defense is coming off the MNF loss, which means a short week to recover. The Jags linebackers have been lacking in the tackle department, and are average in ability, overall. Having said that, the Bucs should be able to find some running room on the edges, away from Stroud and Henderson. If they get out there, then they could beat the Jags LB's, whose 3 starters have just 3 more combined tackles than Ruud alone has. In fact, the Jags leading tackler is Sammy Knight, whose still good in run support, but is starting to get a little long in the tooth in pass coverage. They do have Reggie Nelson back there as well, and he's both good and quick, but he's also a rookie and does make mistakes. I expect guys like Graham and Bennett to be able to abuse the second level a lot, and get to the secondary, where they will have to fight for that extra yardage. If the Bucs can keep the Jags big DL in check, and give Garcia time to throw, the Bucs may be able to hit some home runs in this game, as the Jags play a lot of man coverage. This is a game where we may see Galloway hit a couple of big plays. Of course, the Bucs will need Stovall to step up for Clayton (Doubtful with the high ankle sprain) who was starting to come on the last 3 games. The Jags can be beaten at the intermediate range and deep when the safeties are a little late getting there. I expect the Bucs will have their moments, though I also expect it to be tough sledding for most of the game.

On Defense, the Bucs will be bringing it in physical fashion with their 12 ranked defense in total yards allowed (308.9/g), 5th in points allowed (15.7/g), 21st in rushing yards allowed (123.3/g), and 5th in passing yards allowed (185.6/g). They will face the Jags' 14th ranked offense in yardage (333.7/g), 23rd in points (17.8/g), 3rd in rushing yards (148.5/g), and 26th in passing yards (185.2/g). Just like the Titans, there's very little mystery as to what the Jags will try to do: run the ball. With Garrard out for this game, the Jags don't want to rely on Quinn Gray to beat the Bucs through the air, so they will lean heavily on Taylor and Drew to run the ball against the Bucs. Since Gray is a far lesser threat in the passing game than Garrrard, or Vince Young of the Titans, the Bucs should be able to stuff the box and stop the run. The Bucs shut the Titans' vaunted rushing attack down pretty well, and I expect to see a lot of Cover 3 with the linebackers staying up tight, and a safety coming in to lay the wood on the run. Expect a lot of popping sounds in this game. Without much of a consistent pass threat, the Bucs will likely sell out on the run pretty hard. They will need, however, to watch for draws and screens and try not to take themselves out of the play. I believe the defense will make it extremely difficult for the Jags to sustain drives, and may force Gray into a pick or two. Even though he just saw a similar defense, Gray has very little time to study up for the Bucs, with the short week, and Monte is likely to try to throw a lot of motion and disguises at Gray, hoping he'll make a bad mistake. In the end, I don't see the Jags scoring very many points unless the Bucs' defense just has a bad tackling day and/or doesn't commit to stopping the run.

On Special Teams, the Bucs will have to make do without Mark Jones, who had been having an excellent season, cut short by a patella tendon tear, similar to Caddy's, being subsequently placed on IR. Now the Bucs will have to go back to using a committee of players to return punts and kicks. Cox is likely to be the main guy on kicks, and Hilliard and Buchanon are likely to share the punt duties depending on the situation. Cox is likely to be able to hold up the kick return average, but the punt return average could slip. The Jags are only allowing 8.8 yards per punt return and 18 yards per kick return. The Bucs are allowing 9.1 yards per punt return, and just 16.3 yards per kick return. The Jags are using Northcutt to return punts, getting just 7.1 per return, and Drew for kick returns, where they are getting 28.4 yards per return from him. Both players are starters, and the Bucs special teams units will likely try to hit these guys hard and make it a little tougher for them to impact the game on offense. The Jags have Carney kicking for them, but he's failed to nail anything outside of 40 yards. Podlesh is a solid punter. Right now both teams appear to be fairly even in the kicking and punting departments, though Bryant may currently have the edge in the longer field goal attempts. Field position is going to be huge in this game, and the Bucs should be able to have the edge here, and they'll need it to shorten the field for their offense.

Overall, with the Jags coming in with a poor QB position, and playing the Bucs off a short week at Raymond James, I expect the Bucs to be fresher and to match the Jags in the physical play department. Another defensive battle is likely, with the Bucs edging out the visiting Jags.

Bucs 13 Jags 10