The Talking Plank - Week 11

The Talking Plank -





Redskins At Bucs:

After pasting the Falcons, the Bucs get to come home and host a tougher team in the Washington Redskins. The Redskins hung tight with Division rival Dallas. With the Bucs having a firm grip on the NFC South, they now look to start firming that grip up even more, and add playoff positioning against a possible playoff team. So let's take a look at what we should expect.

On Offense, the Bucs bring the 17th ranked offense (324.4y/g), 20th in points (19.5/g), 15th passing (207.8y/g), and 14th rushing (116.6y/g). They will face Washington's 15th overall rated defense (322.3y/g), 18th in points allowed (22.1/g), 24th against the pass (225.2y/g), and 9th against the run (97.1y/g). The Redskins come in a little banged up, and will be without Sean Taylor, their best Safety, and London Fletcher has bruised ribs, and may not be 100% effective. While the Redskins have only allowed 97 yards rushing per game, it's pretty clear that they are doing so because teams are preferring to pass on them. The Cowboys used T.O. to burn their secondary frequently. If Penn can hold up against Carter, who has 7 of their 23 sacks, then Garcia should have time to find the holes in the Skins' secondary, which is also without Carlos Rogers, who went on IR after the Pats game. Expect to see Galloway, Smith, and others exploit the intermediate to deep middle. The Redskins like to blitz (6 sacks by the LB's and 1.5 from the secondary), so it will be imperative that the OL holds up and gives Jeff the time to burn the blitz. Graham will likely be the workhorse again with Pittman out. Bennett will also likely see some more playing time, and may get used as a receiver with Galloway opposite to really take advantage of the Skins secondary. With Taylor out, the better offenses have been able to move the ball almost at will in the passing game. If the Bucs can run the ball well also, look for this offense to put up some points. Overall, I think the Bucs have enough weapons, and a good enough offensive line, to take advantage of the Redskins and move the ball well for most of the game.

On Defense, the Bucs' 5th overall ranked defense (284.4y/g), number 2 in points allowed (15.1/g), 3rd against the pass (177.6y/g), and 18th against the run (106.8y/g) will be facing a solid, though average, offense. The Redskins come into this game ranked 16th in total yards (326.6/g), 17th in points scored (20/g), 19th passing (201.5y/g), and 8th rushing (125.1y/g). The Skins may be without Todd Wade (RT), and will continue to be without Thomas, with Fabini playing in his place. The Redskins' OL is solid, with Samuels anchoring the LT spot. And they are solid in the running game and will likely try to establish Portis against the Bucs. The problem for the Skins is that the Bucs are continuing to play better against the run every week with the DL taking a lot of heat of the LB's and getting the tackles themselves. The Skins will continue to be with Thrash at wideout, with both Moss and Randle El a little banged up. McCardell will likely see a lot of action against his former team, but he, and both Moss and Randle El will have to deal with the Bucs' hard hitting safeties. Moss and Randle El are both the smaller type of WR that can't generally take a pounding and McCardell is already past his prime, and unlikely to want to take too many really big hits. If they hear the footsteps they may drop some catchable passes. If the Bucs can hold Portis in check and force the Redskins to pass, they will have already won half the battle as the Bucs have the corners that can deal with the Redskins' receivers. If the improved pass rush of the front four can get to Campbell without too much blitzing, they could force him into some interceptions or get some hits on him and force the ball free. Campbell has already fumbled 10 times this season, losing 6 of them. If the Bucs can force two or three turnovers in this game, they could shut the Redskins offense down. The Bucs defense is just starting to really hit its stride, having allowed only two TD's in the last 8 quarters, 4 in the last 12. This is a game where our Left DE should have an advantage on whomever is manning the RT spot for the Skins (whether a banged up Wade or Sampson). We should see a lot of pressures and QB hits. The Bucs, believe it or not, are also number 1 in the league defending Tight Ends. How the heck that happens is anyone's guess, as that's always seemed to be our Achilles heel. In any case, Cooley will need to be accounted for. If they do that, shut Portis down, and force Campbell into some poor decisions, the Bucs' defense could have a big game. In any case, I expect a tough battle in this area.

On Special Teams, the Bucs will continue to try and find someone who can return kicks and punts as well as Mark Jones did. The Bucs come in with an 8.2 yard per punt return average, and a 22.7 yard kick return average. Spurlock is at least getting close to Jones' numbers. The Hilliard, the best punt returner after Jones, is still 4 yards behind Jones at 6.9 vs. 11.9 per return. The Bucs are giving up 8 yards per punt return (not great), but are only giving up 17.8 yards per kick return, which is still in the top of the league (the NFL's new stats tables SUCK! Where are the Special Teams categories?). The Redskins are averaging 9.8 yards per punt, though that is skewed by one long return by Thrash. Randle El is averaging 7.1 yards per return, and that's who the Bucs will have to deal with. The Skins are averaging 26.2 yards per kick return, so this will be an interesting match-up. The Skins are allowing only 4.4 yards per punt return and 20.9 yards on kicks. Both punters are solid. The Bucs have the better field goal kicker, so if this comes down to a long field goal, I like the Bucs odds better than the Skins'. Field position will be big in this game. The Bucs need to keep the Skins in check, and I believe they will.

Overall, I think the combination of the home field advantage, and a surging defense, will be too much for the Skins to overcome, and I see the Bucs' offense getting it going late in the game to pull a tight contest away late.

Bucs 24 Redskins 13