The Talking Plank - Week 10

The Talking Plank -





Bucs At Falcons:

The Bucs are coming off of their BYE and travel to Atlanta to face their Division foe. The Bucs managed to beat the Cardinals to head into the BYE with a win. The BYE has also allowed the Bucs to get back to basics while getting some players back healthy, or healthier, than when they went into the BYE, though some players have now been added to the injury report. The Atlanta Falcons are coming off two straight wins, allowing them to get back into the hunt for a Division crown, however remote that may be at 3-6. The Falcons wins, however, aren't very impressive when you put them into perspective. Two weeks ago they barely beat, at home, the hapless 49ers, winning by just 4 points. Last week, the Falcons traveled up to Carolina, facing a mid-40's QB, and an otherwise sinking Panthers team, and won on a late TD pass to Alge Crumpler. The Falcons' other win this year is against the Texans at home. All three wins came against teams currently under .500. So now the Bucs have the opportunity to go up to Atlanta and win another NFC South contest and take firm control of the Division. Or, they could lose and allow everyone else to be within striking distance, or even tied. So who will win this one?

On Offense, the Bucs are coming in ranked 15th in yardage (326.6/g), 21st in points (18.2/g), 16th passing (213.6/g), and 15th rushing (113/g). They will be facing Atlanta's 16th ranked defense in yardage (323.7/g), 14th in points allowed (20.2/g), 11th against the pass (202.4/g), and 23rd against the run (121.2/g). The numbers look pretty good up front, until you dig into the numbers. Take away the last two weeks against crippled offenses (49ers and Panthers) and the Falcons are giving up nearly 350 yard a game on defense. The last two weeks make that much of a difference. Furthermore, 7 of the Falcons' 13 sacks sacks came in two games. Looking at just 6 of their games (losses) and you get 0 sacks in 3 games, and 1 sack in one. The Giants put up 491 yards of offense on the Falcons' defense. The Falcons' secondary is getting a lot of credit, though I don't think they are really deserving. Hall may still be a Pro-Bowl player, but the rest of the secondary leaves something to be desired. Outside of Hall, Jackson has just as many passes defended as the rest of the Falcons primary secondary players combined. Galloway will be guarded by Hall a lot, and will have to work to get open deep. Galloway may have more success on comebacks and intermediate routes. But where Galloway will pull Hall to him, that will leave the rest of the Bucs' receiving corps against lesser talent. If Clayton can play, we could see him stretch the deep middle a lot against this secondary. Will Milloy is back there to defend these plays, he's not quite the player he was a couple of years ago, only have one pass defensed so far. It will be interesting to see if the Bucs try to use Bennett as a receiver in this game and take advantage of the Hall/Galloway match-up. But where the Bucs should be able to do some serious damage is in the running game. The good teams have managed to consistently run on the Falcons, evidenced by the 4.2 yards per carry average allowed. The Falcons aren't very big on the D-Line, especially when Lewis is out (he's probable for the game, but his injury could be a factor). The Bucs should be able to take advantage of the Falcons' jailbreak blitzing schemes, and run right at the heart of that defense. If they do, they should set the Falcons up for going over the top. If the Falcons drop back into Cover 2, Garcia will have all day to pick them apart. I expect the Bucs' running backs, as a conglomeration, to run for over 100 yards and make it a relatively clean shirt day for Garcia. If Pittman goes, you can bet the pass blocking will be better on third downs. Penn will certainly get tested with Abraham, but Penn's held up well against some of the best, and the Bucs will give him help if he needs it. I don't anticipate Garcia getting hit, not sacked, all that often, unless the Falcons manage to constantly beat our offensive line with that sell-out style blitz they often use. Overall, I expect that the continually improving Bucs' offense will do what it's done to every lesser team in the we've played so far - which is move the ball almost at will. Hopefully they can finish their drives off and punch the ball in and end all doubt early, instead of having another game like the Cardinals.

On Defense, the Bucs are ranked 6th in yards allowed (286.2/g), 4th in points allowed (16/g), 3rd against the pass (173/g), and 18th against the run (113.2/g). They will be up against the Falcons' 27th ranked offense in total yards (293.1/g), 31st in points (15/g), 23rd passing (195.4/g), and 20th rushing (97.7/g). Needless to say, the Falcons haven't exactly been running up the score board this year. Nor have they been rushing for 300 yards in games. With Vick gone, the Falcons' offense no longer has that X-factor it once did. Without that, they are now a more plain offense, and one that's being led by either Harrington or Leftwich at QB, and Dunn and Norwood at tailback. What's really hurting the Falcons is the revolving door at LT once Gandy and Foster both bowed out with season ending injuries. They have used a couple of different players at LT since. The current depth chart shows Wienner moving over to LT and Clabo moving from Guard to RT. In any case, none of this can be good for the Falcons, who have already given up 28 sacks in 9 games. The Falcons line just can't get enough running room for the runners to get a consistent rushing attack going either, which isn't helping things. In the past, Vick used to be able to avoid a lot of sacks and make teams pay for undisciplined rushes by running past the pressure and getting big gains. This year neither QB has that ability, which means they are sitting ducks. Although the Falcons are averaging 3.8 yards per carry, it's not enough to take the heat off the passing game. The Bucs won't have Spires, who is out, but will field the same group as they did against the Cardinals, with the possibly addition of Chukwurah. The DL put a lot of pressure on Warner last week, and looked quite strong. They should improve on that performance this week, and get multiple sacks. The Bucs should be able to hold Atlanta mostly in check with the DL, and have the Linebackers come up in run support. With the Linebackers likely being freed up to move around, it will be difficult for the Falcons to maintain a running game. And while the Falcons might be able to pass the ball some, White is likely to get killed if he goes near Jackson or Phillips. Kelly also is finally healthy and will likely mix playing time with Buchannon during nickel defense. This will allow the Bucs to smother the Falcons' receivers and make any passing attempts very difficult. I can see the Bucs getting a pick or two. With Joe Horn out, the Falcons' passing game will likely consist of White and Crumpler. Alge is the one gut that scares me a little in this game due to our systems' inherent issues with covering Tight Ends. Hopefully he'll be too busy trying to keep Harrington or Leftwich alive to be able to go out into routes. If that happens, I think you can expect the Bucs' defense to shut the Falcons down almost all game long. In the end, I think the Bucs' defense will simply be too much for the Falcons' woeful offense.

On Special Teams, the Bucs will need to find someone to return kicks well, and Spurlock might be the guy. Both teams have had strong kick return games with the right guy in there. The Falcons' best kick returner is Norwood. The Bucs have so fare been roughly 3 yards better in punt returns than the Falcons, and that trend needs to continue. Both teams are roughly even in the punting and place kicking arena. Field position could be a big part of this game. If the Bucs don't get and take advantage of good field position, then they could allow the Falcons some room to make plays and get some things going. I expect, however, that the Bucs will be on the ball in this game.

Overall, I see this as another game in which the Bucs face a team that is currently weaker than themselves. So far the Bucs have managed to handle these teams, and I expect the trend will continue.

Bucs 24 Falcons 13