The Talking Plank - Week 9

The Talking Plank -







Cardinals At Bucs:

With the Bucs having lost 2 straight games, and the BYE week coming up, they hope to end the slide with a win and go into the BYE just in time to get healed up and refreshed for the last 7 games. The Cardinals come in hoping to even up their record. Who will take this contest? Let's find out.

On Offense, the Bucs are currently 17th in offensive yardage (323.6/g), 23rd in points (18.4), 15th passing (216.8/g), and 17th rushing (106.9/g). They'll face a Cardinals defense that's 10th in total yards allowed (304/g), 20th in points (22.4/g), 8th against the pass (195.6/g), and 16th against the run (108.4/g). The Cardinals are also a -7 TO team, a stark difference from the teams the Bucs have played recently. The Cardinals' Defensive line is undersized, save Gabe Watson, whose 332lbs. The Bucs are getting used to facing one big DT, so it's not likely to give Arizona any real advantage. Dockett, who has 6 sacks (2.5 came against Pittsburgh in AZ), is smallish for a DT. If our guards can get there hands on him, they should be able to neutralize him. Even Wade should be able to prevent him from getting through if Watson is requiring his attention. I expect that the Bucs will try to establish the run on either side of Watson, and make the faster guys slow down their rush allowing Garcia time to pick apart the pass defense. While the Cardinals are 8th against the pass, keep in mind only one team they have faced, the Seahawks (281 yards passing against the Cardinals), are in the top half of the league in passing offense. And 3 of the teams they have faced are in the bottom 8 in pass offense. So the numbers may not be all that indicative of what Garcia and Co. will be able to do against them. Galloway will likely have to work hard against Hood, but the Bucs will be able to send out 4 and 5 receivers (includes TE's and RB's) against the Cardinals, and that should allow Garcia to progress through his reads and find someone in a favorable match-up. And much like they tried to do against the Jags, the Bucs will likely try to take advantage of Hood if he tries to squat down on Galloway by going over his head. I like the chances of the Bucs getting it going on the ground and forcing one of the safeties to come up tight and give an additional hole in the secondary. It could be a little tough at times, but the way this offense has been going, I expect them to be able to move the ball, especially if Garcia gets time to throw on a consistent basis and the running game gets good results early. The Cardinals' LB's are solid, but Dansby could be out with a knee injury, and that could be a big impact in the running game. I like the Bucs' chances at putting up some numbers, and hopefully points, against this defense.

On Defense, the Bucs' 8th ranked defense (297.6 y/g), 9th in points allowed (16.8/g), 2nd against the pass (173.1/g), and 22nd against the run (124.5/g), will be preparing to go against a good size offensive line, but not as physical in its play as the Titans and Jags lines that they've recently been up against. The Cardinals' offense comes in 11th in total yards (337/g), 12th in points (21/g), 11th passing (233.9/g), and 19th rushing (103.1/g). They have a solid offense led by Kurt Warner, with a couple of potent receivers in Bolden and Fitzgerald, both of which are more the possession type receiver. The Cardinals' line has also only given up 8 sacks, but their LT, Mike Gandy, may not play, but, if he does, could be hampered by a calf injury. If he's slowed down any, that could be enough for someone like Adams, Carter, White, or Chukwurah (if he plays) to take advantage of and hit Warner a few more times than he would like. The Bucs will have to stop James first, which they should be able to do. After that, the Bucs must prevent the Cardinals' receivers from becoming active. If Kelly can play, and be effective, it will help out tremendously, as the Cardinals like to use a lot of 3 and 4 receiver sets. If they go 5 wide, the Bucs need to blitz on the edge and let their LB's break on the receiver. That will make it hard for Warner to really get it going. The only concern I have in this game is with the Bucs getting to Warner enough to rattle him. If they can, then they'll slow this offense down. If not, it could be a shootout. It should be noted that 4 of the teams they have faced are in the bottom half of the league in sacks, and 2 of the other 3 teams go 2 sacks each. So some of the Cardinals' stats must be taken into context. They've played a weaker schedule than the Bucs, so it will be interesting to see how our defense does against this offense. I think the Bucs will come out and be pretty stout and make it difficult for Warner to really get anything going on a consistent basis. He may have a couple of good drives, but I don't think that he'll be effective all game. I also think Adams will get a sack in this game, as he will be playing a lot more than he has been (probably twice as many snaps), and I think he's finally starting to use setup moves better and putting his hands to better use at the LOS. If the Bucs make the Cardinals one dimensional, it could get ugly.

On Special Teams, the Bucs should have a considerable advantage in the FG game where the Cardinals' kicker has missed 5 attempts, including one inside the 40. The Bucs are also getting slightly better punting out of Bidwell than the Cardinals are getting out of Barr. In the punt return category, the Cardinals are giving up a horrendous 16.1 yards per punt return compared to the Bucs 9.3 yards per attempt allowed. The Cardinals are giving up 25.6 yards per kick return compared to the Bucs 17 yard per attempt allowed. On the flip side, the Cardinals are getting 11.2 yards per punt return, and 22.6 yards per kick return, while the Bucs are getting 9.9 per punt, and 23.3 per kick. The Bucs should be able to win the field position game this time around, and that could be a key component this week as well. Overall, I like our Special Teams over the Cardinals'.

In the end, with the Bucs desperate to end their 2 game losing skid and enter the Bye with a win, and with Garcia's comments that he was "pissed" after last week's game, I expect that the Bucs will come out hitting on all cylinders in this game and go into the BYE 5-4.

Bucs 23 Cardinals 17