The Talking Plank - Week 12

The Talking Plank -





Bucs at Saints:

This is it. By "it" I mean this is the game that can just about sew up the Division crown. If the Bucs win this game, then they only need one more win, or one loss by the Saints and Panthers, to win the Division. If the Bucs lose, the Saints will erase the current advantage, and make it a tight race going down the stretch. So let's look at this match-up.

On Offense, the Bucs are currently rated 19th overall (312.4y/g), 20th in points (19.5/g), 19th passing (197.4y/g), and 13th rushing (115y/g). They will face the Saints' 22nd ranked defense (341.3y/g), 21st in points allowed (22.9/g), 27th against the pass (245.5y/g), and 9th against the run (95.8y/g). The Bucs' offensive stats took a hit last week when Gradkowski came in and was horribly ineffective. This week the Bucs may be without Garcia from the start again. This time, however, they've had time to prepare their back-ups. McCown looks to be the guy to start in Garcia's place. If Garcia can continue to heal and actually play, the Bucs offense will exploit a pathetic New Orleans' secondary. The same one they exploited early in often in the first match-up, before switching to a running game late to maintain the lead. If McCown goes, a lot will depend on the protection. The Saints' pass rush hasn't been very effective and failed to get to Garcia in the first game. They had 19 sacks to date, which isn't going to scare a lot of teams. I expect the offensive line to give the QB enough time to take advantage of the Saints, even if they bring the blitz. If that's the case, and assuming Luke can get back to reading the play as quick as he did during the preseason, then he'll be very effective against this secondary, though picks are still a concern. I also look for Graham to have a pretty solid game and for Gruden to use Bennett to attack the edges and run right by the somewhat big and slow linebackers of the Saints. They are vulnerable on the edges. Barring a return by Gradkowski, or an awful effort by the line, the Bucs' offense will put up some points against the Saints' defense.

On Defense, the Bucs have slipped slightly down in some stats, but come in 6th in yards allowed (296.0/g), 2nd in points (14.9/g), 5th against the pass (188y/g), and 17th against the run (108y/g). The Saints offense, which is playing better now, is ranked 8th overall (353.8y/g), 15th in points (22.1/g), 5th passing (266.6y/g), and 28th rushing (86.2y/g). The Bucs' first order of business will be to stuff Bush, then, as he's used, Stecker. The Bucs shouldn't have much of a problem doing this. From there, they will have to stop Brees in the passing game. He's only been sacked 8 times this season, but 2 came from the Bucs in week 2. The Bucs' defensive line has been getting better the last few weeks, and should continue to get pressure on Brees, though they may not get the sack. Brees has thrown 15 picks versus 18 TD's this season, and the Bucs are starting to really rack up the turnovers. With Barber having gotten off the snide, it may start raining for him. I expect the Bucs to take it away from the Saints on a couple of occasions to end good drives. It will be tough to stop them all game long, however, so the Bucs must come to play. Look for some hard hitting on playes like Colston, to make sure that the arms are a little shorter and a little less likely to grab the catch. If the Bucs can hold the Saints' offense down, which I think they will, then that could be enough to get the Saints to press on both sides of the ball and take some dumb chances. If the Bucs keep their cool, they could end up virtually knocking the Saints out of contention.

On Special Teams, the Bucs continue to cover punts extremely well which they will need to do against the Saints. Currently the Bucs are allowing 7.6 yards per punt return and 18 yards per kick return. The Saints are getting 9.1 per punt, and just 22.1 per kick, so the Bucs should be able to keep the kick returns in check. Who wins the punt coverage/return battle is hard too say. The Bucs are returning kicks and punt at an average of 8 yards per punt, and 22.6 yards per kick, while the Saints are allowing 10 and 22.7 respectively. If the Bucs can win the field position battle, it will help them tremendously in this game. Both punters are excellent, but the Bucs have the clear advantage in the field goal department as Mare is going downhill.

Overall, I think the Bucs will find a way to score points, and the Bucs' renewed defense will find a way to make life real difficult for Brees, much like Campbell last week. I see the Bucs pulling this out and taking a commanding lead in the Division.

Bucs 27 Saints 17