The Talking Plank - Week 13

The Talking Plank -





Bucs At Texans:

With the defeat of the Saints last week, the Bucs can wrap up the division by winning this game. Furthermore, with Green Bay having QB health concerns, the Bucs can stay on pace to try and catch up to the Packers, and possibly unseat them for the 2nd seed. A win against the Texans, and a loss by the Packers, would put the Bucs just one game behind them. Of course, the Packers have the Raiders this week and the Rams next, but you never know. The Texans are pretty much sliding out of contention in the AFC and would be on life support with a loss this week (sound familiar?). So who can prevail in this game? Let's look.

On Offense, the Bucs are currently 19th in yards per game (325.2/g), 19th in points scored (20.1/g), 17th in passing (205.4y/g), and 11th rushing (119.8y/g). They will face the Texans' defense, which is 21st overall in yards allowed (337.9/g), 26th in points allowed (24.2/g), 16th against the pass (215.8y/g), and 25th against the run (122.2y/g). What first strikes me is the size of the line and the lack of a great set of linebackers behind it. That leads to the high number of yards allowed rushing, as well as the 4.5 yards per carry allowed. This is despite the fact that they haven't played a lot of great running teams this season. The Texans have also only managed to get 19 sacks this season, with Mario Williams (last year's Gaines Adams) getting 8.5 of them. Amobi Okoye has 5 sacks as well, but none since the Bye week. Look for the Bucs to pound it right at the Texans small defensive line. They should be able to move them completely off the ball and get to the Texans' average linebackers. One of the interesting things about this game will be who ends up actually quarterbacking the offense. Garcia will be a game time decision, but I have a feeling that McCown might end up going again, with maybe Garcia being the back-up to come in if Luke struggles. McCown tore up the Texans in preseason, and I can't really think of any reason why he couldn't do it again, as he's seen live play in the regular season, and has enough years of study to recognize most defensive fronts. Whoever goes, they should be able to take advantage of some match-ups in the secondary. The Texans' defense hasn't managed a lot of interceptions (4 less than the Bucs), and I can see Galloway getting free at least a couple of times in the game. This would be a good game for Clayton to get a lot of work in to see if he can start to get it going again, as he would have a nice size advantage on everyone out there. Look for the Bucs to rack up well over 100 yards rushing and do some nice things through the air while putting up some points.

On Defense, the Bucs are currently 4th in yards allowed (291.8/g), 2nd in points allowed (15.6/g), 4th in pass defense (185.8y/g), and 16th against the run (106y/g). The Texans' offense is currently 9th in total yards (344.4y/g), 16th in points scored (21.9/g), 6th passing (251y/g), and just 23rd rushing (93.4y/g). The Texans will be without Ahman Green and Matt Schaub. The means it will be the Rosenfels and Dayne show. Dayne is a big back, but he's not very fast, and the Bucs have had a habit this season of coming up and whacking the bigger, slower backs. Look for Dayne to get hit hard a lot, and possibly drop the ball once or twice. Ruud could have a big game, along with Phillips, in run support. The Texans will surely try to test the run defense early, but won't be shy passing the ball either. They currently have 45 more pass attempts than the Bucs. The one big Achilles heel for the Texans' passing attack is the shear number of picks. Rosenfels, in spot duty, already has 7 picks to go with 8 TD's. The Bucs have been much more opportunistic the last few weeks, and that could be a big factor in this game. The Texans haven't been giving up many sacks this season, with only 18 allowed so far this season, but he Bucs' defensive line has started to catch fire, evidenced by 3 sacks against Brees last week, who had only been sacked 8 times all season before last week's game. The Texans don't have an overpowering offensive line and can be beat. I expect the continuing maturation of Adams to be a big factor in this game. If the Bucs can consistently pressure Rosenfels, they can make him throw some bad passes and take advantage of it. Even if he does complete passes regularly, the Bucs can rack up some big hits on the Texans' receivers and Tight Ends. There's 9 fumbles amongst the two groups, with Daniels, the TE, being the biggest single culprit with 4 fumbles. The backs also have 3 fumbles. Overall the Texans are -10 and have a league worst 31 turnovers. Expect the defense to come out hitting hard and trying to strip the ball out and step in front of passes. While the Texans will move the ball at times, I expect the surging defense to force some turnovers and stop the Texans enough to make their lives very difficult.

On Special Teams, the Bucs come in with one of the best kick coverage units in the league (17.6y/g) and one of the better punt coverage teams (7.6y/g). They will have to be playing well as the Texans have a solid special teams unit averaging 23.4 yards per kick and 9 yards per punt return. Conversely, the Bucs are averaging 22.6 yards per kick return and only 7.4 yards per punt. They should be able to find some room returning against the Texans, who are allowing 23.7 yards per kick 8.6 yards per punt return. Their punter, Turk, is a good punter, though, and may pin the Bucs back at times. Kris Brown is a very good field goal kicker as well, which will match up strongly against Bryant. Bidwell will need to make sure his punts are solid. The game could loom on starting field position, and the Bucs aren't likely to have too much of an edge in this game. It's crucial that the Bucs pin the Texans back as often as possible to force them to go the length of the field and increase the likelihood that they'll make a critical mistake. I think the Bucs might struggle with field position after punts, but after kicks should be fine, though I'm hoping we only return one kick.

Overall, the Bucs are the better team, and are playing with a team concept. This team is strongly committed to each other and the coaching staff, and I expect them to come out and really try to take it to the Texans early and try to hit them in the mouth and see if they recoil and drop a few balls. If the Bucs' defense comes out swinging hard, then this game won't be too much of a contest. If they take the Texans likely, then anything can happen. I expect the Bucs to play this game much like last week, and to take the Division crown home by sealing the deal.

Bucs 24 Texans 16