The Talking Plank - Week 15

The Talking Plank -





Bucs At 49ers:

With the Bucs having wrapped up the NFC South, they now have the opportunity of fighting for the third seed. To do that, they'll likely have to win out and hope for Seattle to lose a game. The 49ers, on the other hand, are playing out the season. The Bucs will have a good chance at finally winning at San Francisco if they go out there and take care of business.

On Offense, the Bucs come in ranked 19th overall in yardage (320.9/g), 18th in points (20.9/g), 19th in passing yards (199.6/g), and 10th rushing (121.3/g). They will face a 49ers defense that comes in ranked 23rd in yards allowed (339.1/g), 22nd in points allowed (23.2/g), 20th against the pass (220.1y/g), and 23rd against the run (119y/g). The 49ers run a 3-4 defense, which, historically, has been a defense that Gruden's offense can usually exploit, but something they had trouble against last season. The reason is usually the lack of immediate pressure in the passing game. Teams that have very fast 3-4's, and blitz a ton, can get that pressure, but the 49ers aren't one of those teams. In fact, 15 of the 49ers 26 sacks came in the 4 games versus the Rams and Cardinals, with 10 of their sacks coming against the Rams, including all but 1 of Young's 6.5 sacks. When you look at the game logs of the 49ers' defensive players, they are remarkable absent of sacks outside of those 4 games. That should allow our talented offensive line to be able to hold up and keep Garcia relatively stain free in this game. The real issue won't be in passing the ball, as the Bucs should be able to easily exploit the secondary of the 49ers, it will be running the ball. The 49ers are giving up just 3.8 yards per carry, so, while teams are sticking with it and getting yards, they are getting the yards slowly. It will be interesting to see how Graham, Pittman, and Bennett get used, and how effective they are. I think we will see a decent running game, but nothing spectacular, and I think the Bucs will have to get it going through the air first. Galloway, Hilliard, and Clayton should all be able to exploit this secondary during the game, and I can see Garcia having his best game of the year against the 49ers, the team that gave him his shot, but then let him go because of the T.O. rift. The Bucs offense should be able to do what a lot of teams have, which is put up the points.

On Defense, the Bucs come in ranked 3rd overall in yards (278/g), 1st in points allowed (15.6/g), 2nd against the pass (174.5y/g), and 14th against the run (103.5y/g). The 49ers offense comes in ranked 32nd overall in yards (242.8/g), 31st in points scored (13.6/g), 32nd passing (152.2y/g), and 27th rushing (90.6y/g). The 49ers also come into this game -13 in turnovers (the Bucs are +14), and having allowed a whopping 48 sacks. Needless to say, this match-up appears to be very bad for the 49ers. While Shaun Hill has given them a boost at the QB spot (sorry Bucs fans, Dilfer is out with a concussion - there goes at least one easy pick6), he's done it against two of there worst passing defenses in the league, the Vikings and Bengals. Needless to say, there's a world of difference between those two pass defenses and the Bucs' pass defense, and Monte now has two weeks worth of film on the guy. The Bucs defensive line will start the ball rolling by using there superior speed against a big, but very nonathletic, offensive line. They will seek to get a lot of penetration to disrupt running plays to Gore, whom they must slow down, and then move on to the QB once that is accomplished. I expect to see the Bucs come out of this game with 4-6 sacks, and expect Adams and White to lead the party again. The 49ers aren't very explosive in the passing game, and our secondary should have no problems containing their receivers with just one safety deep, allowing Philips or Jackson to step up close and support against the run and cut of the tight ends. Vernon Davis is a good tight end that the Bucs will need to shutdown, or the 49ers could exploit that area of the field. The real key for the Bucs is to slow the run down and get after the passer. If they can do that, and throw in a little confusion with mixed coverages, such as disguising between Cover 3 and Cover 2, then they'll make it very difficult on an already bad 49ers' offense. I just don't see the 49ers doing too much in this game.

On Special Teams, the Bucs come in averaging 7.1 per punt return, and 24.1 per kick return, while the 49ers are allowing 5.9 and 21.4 per respective returns. The 49ers' coverage units are pretty solid, but I can see Spurlock ripping off another long kick return, especially with the "no TD return" monkey off this team's back. The 49ers are averaging 9.3 per punt return and 23.6 per kick return and will go against a Bucs' coverage unit allowing 7 yards per punt and just 19.3 yards per kick return. So it's hard to tell which team will get the edge in field position, though I think the Bucs are starting to get back to playing Special Teams like they had earlier in the year. The 49ers do have one of the best kickers and one of the best punters in the league, so they have a slight edge in those departments. Special teams could be critical in this game, and, while I think they could potentially hurt the Bucs, I think the Bucs will come out to play in this area and try to keep getting back to the dominate play we saw from them during the first few weeks before key injuries took some good players.

Overall, while this could be a trap game, I think the Bucs' young guys earned a bit of a lesson after the Texans' game. They learned that you can't let an emotional game put you up on a pedestal going into the next game. If you do, you will lose in this league, and I think that lesson was well learned. I see the Bucs going out there and doing what they have done pretty much all year long, which is put the inferior teams on their backs, and put you foot on their throats and dig. I see the Bucs getting up early and pouring it on until the 49ers quit.

Bucs 28 49ers 10