The Talking Plank - Week 10

The Talking Plank - Week 10





Vikings At Bucs:

The Bucs are coming off a much needed BYE week, one that was proceeded by the largest comeback victory in franchise history. Now the Bucs get the 5-4 Vikings, who have the best running back in football. Will they be able to stop the run? Will they be able to run on the Vikings' top tier run defense?

On Offense, the Bucs come in ranked 9th overall (350.3y/g), 16th in points (22.2/g), 9th passing (234.4y/g), and 11th rushing (115.9y/g). The Vikings' defense comes in ranked 6th in yards allowed (289.3y/g), 20th in points allowed (23.9/g), 19th against the pass (219.2y/g), and 3rd against the run (70.1y/g). The Vikings appear to have a top notch run defense, and the two Williams inside have a lot to do with that. The Vikings have been mixing players at the MLB spot, so if the Bucs can get the blocks on the Tackles, then they should be able to exploit the linebackers of the Vikings. Where the Bucs will need to concentrate, though, is in the passing game against a suspect secondary. The Vikings have some decent players, but teams have been able to beat them through the air. If the Bucs go that route, they must be able to keep Garcia off the ground, as the Vikings have piled up 25 sacks so far. Thankfully, their best rushers, K. Williams, and Allen, come at the left side of our line, the side that is strongest in pass pro, and is part of the reason why the Bucs have only allowed 10 sacks all season. What will be interesting to see is if Graham goes or not. If he doesn't look for Caddy to be activated and possible get a couple of carries. If Graham goes, Caddy will be deactivated, and the Bucs will stick with Smith as the third option. Dunn may be the Bucs' best weapon out of the backfield, as he has the speed to exploit the Vikings' back 7 if he get's passed the line or catches the ball past the line in open space. I see the Bucs pushing hard to establish the run while also trying to open up the passing game early and pull the safeties out of the box and keep the corners backed up. If Garcia can hit a few deep passes (with the past 2 weeks he better!) the Bucs will be able to force the Vikings to stop the run with the front 7, and the Bucs have the horses up front to win that battle. Look for the offense to move the ball well at times, and hit a few big plays, leading to a healthy amount of scoring.

On Defense, the Bucs come in ranked 7th overall (289.4y/g), 4th in points allowed (16.3/g), 5th against the pass (190.1y/g), and 11th against the run (99.3y/g). The Vikings come in ranked 14th overall (344.3y/g), 14th in points (23.3/g), 21st passing (200.3y/g), and 5th rushing (144y/g). The Bucs will be geared up to stop Peterson and force Frerotte to beat them with the Vikes' crappy assortment of receivers. The Vikings aren't especially potent through the air, and are less so if you slow down that running game. If the Bucs can hold their own with the front 7, or with just one safety up close, the Bucs should be able to slow the Vikings' offense down. Until last week, the Bucs hadn't given up 100 yards to a single rusher. I'm sure they are pissed about that, and they are at home where Peterson won't enjoy the artificial turf, and where the Bucs' defense plays best. The Vikings have given up 23 sacks so far, and the Bucs have cooled off in the sack department. It's time for them to get the rush going again, and that could happen as the Vikings employ a pair of mammoth, though slower footed, tackles on the offensive line. If Adams and White can keep the big guys from getting that initial leverage on them, they should be able to beat them with their speed. If that happens, Frerotte could be eating a lot of Bermuda. I have a feeling the defense is going to really get after it in passing situations. I'm leary about stopping Peterson, but the Bucs have proven they can stop the running game and I think Peterson will have a good day, but not good enough.

On Special Teams, the Bucs are averaging 7.5 per punt return and 25.1 per kick return, while allowing 9.3 per punt and 20.7 per kick. Keep in mind that Smith is averaging 15.6 per punt and 32.7 per kick with a kick return for a TD against the Chiefs. The Vikings come in averaging 5.3 per punt return and 22.5 per kick, while allowing 18.1 per punt and 22.5 per kick return. Needless to say, the punt return team of the Bucs should have a very decisive edge against the punt units of the Vikes. We could see Smith return a punt for a TD, or at lest break some big returns. The Bucs should be able to get a consistent advantage in field position in this game. When it comes to kicking, Longwell has problems with kicks between the 30 and 50 yard mark. Beyond 50 and under 30 he's money. Bryant, of course, is better at the ranges under 50, but has yet to make a 50+ kick (only 2 tries). So it's more likely the Bucs will get the FG's than the Vikes for the typical range kicks. Both punters are excellent, but the Vikes have a slight edge with Kluwe. I believe our special teams will be the better unit, and I can see a return for a TD in this game, along with a lot of big returns.

The Vikings are a challenge, but the Bucs should be up for it at home after a BYE. I think they will slow Peterson down enough to force the Vikings to pass more than they would like, and the defense will take advantage with some picks, while the offense will get it done, for the most part.

Bucs 24 Vikings 17