The Talking Plank - Week 9

The Talking Plank - Week 9





Bucs At Chiefs:

First off, sorry about having no updates this past week. Wife was out of town, and I had some work come home with me. Needless to say, I hope to get back going again. With the loss at Dallas, the Bucs really missed an opportunity to place them solidly in command of the NFC. Now they are 5-3 and need to go on the road, to a trap game, and make sure they come back with the win. So let's take a look at this game.

On offense, the Bucs come in ranked 13th (341.2y/g), 21st in points (21.2/g), 14th passing (221y/g), and 9th rushing (120.2y/g). The Chiefs are ranked 31st in defense (404.7y/g), 28th in points allowed (27.6/g), 17th against the pass (207.9y/g), and 32nd agains the run (196.9y/g). Needless to say, with the Chiefs giving up a whopping 6.4 yards per rush, the Bucs will likely attempt to exploit that area of the Chiefs' defense. The Bucs will be without Dunn, Sears, and Askew, but should be able to run with Graham and Bennett. The Chiefs also seem to have a problem generating any kind of pass rush with just 4 sacks all year. That bodes well for the Bucs, as they should be able to exploit both the passing and rushing areas. The Bucs have had some struggles generating offense on the road, but should be able to get enough going to turn this game into an eventual route. With Galloway back, Bryant doing well, and Clayton resurfacing, the Bucs should have enough weapons to force the safeties to respect the passing game. If that happens, they should be able to exploit the ground game. Garcia needs to have a calm game and take whatever is there and not feel the phantom pressure. In the end, I think our offense will have a stellar game and rack up some points.

On defense, the Bucs come in ranked 5th (277.6y/g), 2nd in points allowed (15/g), 7th against the pass (188.8y/g), and 8th against the run (88.9y/g). The Chiefs' offense is ranked 27th (267.7y/g), 31st in points scored (14.1/g), 29th passing (163.9y/g), and 20th rushing (103.9y/g). Larry Johnson is suspended...for week 10 (next week). But, still, the Chiefs have been average on the ground and horrid through the air. Thigpen is going against the Bucs, and you can expect some pick opportunities, as well as some sacks. The Chiefs have given up a whopping 22 sacks. Their most dangerous receiver is Tight End Tony Gonzalez. Beyond that, they have some average receivers, and not much else. The Bucs secondary should be able to deal with this group, though it will be interesting to see what impact missing Phillips has, and how well Piscatelli does starting. Personally, I think Sabby will be a better Safety than Flip, but we'll see. With the Bucs' defense starting to clamp down on everyone, I don't expect to see the Chiefs do much but punt the ball a lot. The defense should be able to rack up some sacks and get a pick or two. If they do, they'll shut the Chiefs down.

On special teams, the Bucs come in averaging 7.0 on punt returns, and 21.5 yards per kick return. They are allowing 9.8 per punt and 21 per kick. The Chiefs are getting 5.1 yards per punt and 24.4 yards per kick, while allowing 10.5 per punt and 22.5 per kick. Since inserting Smith, the Bucs got 16.4 yards per punt return on 5 tries. He's definitely an improvement here, and that might make a difference in terms of starting position. The Bucs should win the field position battle more often than they lose it, but we'll see. Novack was the kicker, but sucked at FG's missing 4 of 10. So odds are that Barth will kick vs. the Bucs, and he's something of an unknown long term. From the punting position, Colquitt may be out again, which would leave Weatherford to punt, who is doing a so-so job. If so, the Bucs will have an advantage here that may lead to better field position. I like our Special Teams in this match-up.

This is another trap game. If the Bucs come out to play and don't make a lot of mistakes, they will win, and win big.

Bucs 27 Chiefs 9