The Talking Plank - Week 6

The Talking Plank - Week 6




Panthers At Bucs:

After a heartening loss to the Broncos, the Bucs find themselves in a position where they don't want to lose a critical NFC South game to the stinkin' Panthers.

On Offense, the Bucs come in ranked 7th in offense (350.2y/g), 16th in points (22.8/g), 12th passing (215.4y/g), and 8th rushing (134.8y/g). The Panthers' defense is ranked 4th in yards allowed (254.4y/g), 4th in points allowed (14/g), 3rd against the pass (156y/g), and 13th against the run (98.4y/g). The Bucs will have Garcia likely starting in place of Griese. He will need to use his mobility to keep plays alive and run when the coverage locks down on the receivers. The Panthers have 10 sacks in 5 games, and will likely get pressure on Garcia. If the pressure isn't too bad, he may be able to exploit the safeties. The Bucs will likely have a great match-up with Stevens on the linebackers or safeties, and this should be one that Garcia looks to exploit. But what the Bucs must committ to doing in this game is run. They need to hit it the edges hard, and keep the rushers like Peppers from over committing in the passing game. More importantly, running the ball will keep the Panthers' offense off the field and shorten the game. I think the Bucs will try to run a lot and will pound it at the Panthers' defense and try to wear them out in the heat. It will be tough, but they need to establish the run if they want to be able to pass on this team. Look for a good afternoon from the offense, in terms of yards, but scoring may be hard to come by.

On Defense, the Bucs come in ranked 16th in total yards allowed (318.2y/g), 8th in points allowed (18.8/g), 21st against the pass (218.6y/g), and 14th against the run (99.6y/g). The Panthers's offense comes in ranked 14th overall (330y/g), 15th in points scored (22.8/g), 15th passing (207y/g), and 11th rushing (123y/g). The Panthers seem to find success with Delhomme passing on our defense, but the Bucs have really been mixing up their coverages a lot. This looks to me to be a game where the defense will clamp down on the Panthers' potent rushing attack, and try to play a lot more man against the passing game, as Delhomme seems to find a lot of success against our Cover 2 looks. The Bucs will need to man up against the big line of the Panthers', who may not have their starting Right Tackle. Look for the defense to put some pressure on the QB and slow the run down. The Panthers will likely have to find their scores on some big plays. I expect the Bucs' defense to greatly slow down the Panthers' offense.

On Special Teams, the Bucs come are averaging 4.9 yards per punt return, and 22.6 yards per kick return, while allowing 9.3 on punts and just 18.5 on kicks. The Panthers are averaging 9.6 per punt return, 22.6 per kick return, and they are allowing 5.4 per punt and 24.9 per kick. The Panthers clearly have an advantage in the punt return and coverage teams, and also have Mark Jones returning punts, so he should be familiar with our coverage teams. The Bucs do appear to have an advantage in covering and returning kicks. Both teams have solid punters and kickers. The Bucs should have decent field position off of kicks, but the punt coverage teams concern me. The Bucs need to clamp down on this area and keep Carolina pinned back so the defense can make it tough on them. Hard to see any major advantage for either team.

When it comes down to it, though, I see a low scoring game, but the Panthers seem to have our number.

Panthers 16 Bucs 10