2008 Bucs' Schedule: PNG

Saturday, September 27, 2008

The Talking Plank - Week 4

The Talking Plank - Week 4





Packers At Bucs:

The Bucs get to host our favorite smelly cheeses from the north: the Packers. Oh the fun of it. With the Bucs having played an OT game to pull out a win when they were 10 points down with 6 minutes to go, we should see a real strong team effort the rest of this season. Games like that can really bring a team together if they were already doing so. The Packers, however, are coming off a Monday night drubbing at the hands of the Cowgirls and come in as the walking wounded. The Packers have a number of key injuries that can impact this game, but the Bucs must take advantage of them.

On Offense, the Bucs come in ranked 7th overall (372.3y/g), 14th in points (23.7/g), 6th passing (253.3y/g), and 14th rushing (119y/g). The Packers' defense comes in ranked 27th overall (373y/g), 22nd in points allowed (23.7/g), 22nd against the pass (222y/g), and 26th against the run (151y/g). The Packers have a solid defensive line and 2 real good linebackers (Hawk and Barnett), and will try to slow the Bucs running game down. The big problem they will have is that they haven't been very successful at that, despite having 650lbs of Grade A beef in the middle of their defensive line. The Bucs have been a strong rushing unit so far, though the Bears made it extremely difficult by consistently placing 8 and 9 men in the box and bringing constant run blitzes. They forced the Bucs to beat them through the air, and the Bucs did. The Packers can't really afford to use this strategy do to their banged up secondary. Their starting strong safety looks to be unable to go (Bigby). Al Harris, one of their starting corners, is out of the game Simms style. The back up strong safety is nicked up (Rouse - knee). And Woodson has been playing on a very painful broken toe. If the Packers play the run, the Bucs should be able to make mince meat of the secondary. If they protect the secondary by dropping more guys back, then the Bucs will run all over them. I think the Packers will probably play a balanaced defense, and use blitzes on obvious pass situations. The Bucs will probably use the TE's a lot to help chip Kamper on the LDE spot and help Trueblood, who will have his hands full. I think Penn can handle Cullen Jenkins, but we'll see. If Graham and Dunn can get into the second level, there's going to be all kinds of room to make some big plays. I look for the Bucs' offense to come out trying to force the Packers to play it safe in the passing game, and then run on them. The Bucs should be able to move the ball quite well. If they can avoid turnovers, or at least greatly minimize them, this offense should put up a bunch of yards and points.

On Defense, the Bucs come in ranked an unusual 26th overall (359y/g), only 9th in points allowed (19/g), 27th against the pass (237.7y/g), and 20th against the run (121.3y/g). The Packers' offense comes in ranked 8th overall (366y/g), 5th in points (29.3/g), 7th passing (250.7y/g), and 15th rushing (115.3y/g). The Packers have a couple of dangerous receivers in Driver and Jennings, and the Bucs can't afford to give up the big plays like last week. The Bucs should be able to stop the run in this game, but stopping the pass will be the big key. I look for Ronde to rebound big time and have a pick or two. I also look for the Safeties to stay back more to provide deep ball coverage, and that could lead to a pick or some big hits. Green Bays' backs are up and down, and the Bucs should be able to contain them with their front 7 allowing the Safeties to support the corners. With the Packers giving up 6 sacks in 3 games, the Bucs should also be able to get after Rogers a little bit. If they can get to him and shake him up some, then cover the receivers with deep help, then the defense could have a pretty strong day. In the end, I think they will allow some points, but they will make some plays and get the Packers off the field in key moments.

On Special Teams, the Bucs punt return and kick return teams haven't been stellar. The Bucs are getting just 3.7 yards per punt return and 21.3 yards per kick return. They are allowing 9.8 on punts, but just 19.9 on kicks. The Packers are gettin 13.4 per punt return, and 20.6 per kick, while allowing just 5.4 on punts, and 20.6 on kicks. The punt return numbers for the Packers are misleading, though, as Blackmon had a 76 yard return for a TD. The other 6 returns only averad 2.9 per. If the Bucs can keep the big returns from happening this week, then they should be a OK in the field position department. The kickers and punters are about even, but Bryant's mental state could be a factor on his kicking game. Could be positive. Could be negative. He does appear to be playing, however, as PFT has noted. In any case, the Bucs should be getting a much better effort out of special teams after last week's letdown. That should make them sharp for this game.

This is a game, right now, that the Bucs should win, and I think they will. I think the Packers are just too beat up coming in off that tough home loss on MNF, and that's not a good thing going into a road game. The Bucs will exploit GB's holes and the offense will rack up some points and make it easier on the defense.

Bucs 28 Packers 17

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