The Talking Plank - Week 3

The Talking Plank - Week 3




Bucs At Bears:

The Bucs got rid of the goose egg last week by beating up on the hapless Falcons. The game was tighter than it should of been because Griese missed some wide open bombs that would have probably scored additional points. The Bears, meanwhile, lost to a Steve Smith-less Panthers ball club. I picked the Bucs to lose this game because of their history at Chicago. After 2 weeeks of football, I'm not so sure that the Bears are all that good, especially considering how beat up Indy was in week one, and how "off" Manning was. So let's look at how this match-up looks right now.

On Offense, the Bucs are ranked 11th in total offense (331.5y/g), 15th in points (22/g), 16th passing (176.5y/g), and 7th rushing (155y/g). The Bears' defense is ranked 6th overall (254.5y/g), 10th in points allowed (16.5/g), 11th against the pass (171y/g), and 8th against the run (83.5y/g). The Bears shutdown the Colts' running game, but weren't as effective against the Panthers. The Bucs have the strongest running game the Bears have yet faced, and the Bucs will certainly be ready to use it against an undersized DL and against a solid corps of LB's. Don't be surprised if the Bucs try to run more to the right against the Sam LB, Hillenmeyer, and stay away from Briggs and Urlacher. The Bucs have had some success in the past attacking Urlacher, though, so I won't be surprised if they try that on ocassion. The Bucs OL should be able to man up against the Bears pass pro, and limit the pressure, but the Bears will get some pressure with Brown and Ogunleye on the edges. The real key will be the Bucs' TE's and WR's. The Bucs should be able to outclass the LB's with our TE's, and beat the secondary with our WR's even with Galloway out. Tillman is solid, but Vasher and the nickel and dime corners aren't so hot. The Bears are also without starting Strong Safety McGowan who apparently didn't start last week and is out this week, and the Bears' Free Safties aren't really all that good. This will aid the running game and the passing game. If Griese can hit the wide open receivers that he missed last week and take advantage of the mismatches, the Bucs should have moderate success in the air and should be able to run the ball pretty well. I look for the Bucs' offense to put some more points on this Bears' defense than what I thought a couple of weeks back, due to performance and injuries. This despite the fact that Galloway is out, as the receivers were still getting open even without him on the field late last week. Graham and Dunn should be a tough combo for the Bears to handle, but the Bucs must lean on Graham first and only use Dunn as a change-up.

On Defense, the Bucs come in ranked 23rd in total yards allowed (336.0y/g), 10th in points (16.5/g), 23rd against the pass (233y/g), and 16th against the run (103y/g). The Bears' offense comes in ranked 24th overall (287.5y/g), 12th in points (23/g), 27th passing (138.5y/g), and 9th rushing (149y/g). This is where it gets interesting as the Bears' offense looks like the Falcons' offense; i.e. run-run-run, and run. And why not? They have Orton throwing the ball around. The Bucs defense will be facing a smaller offensive line, one that is not as good as the two they have already faced, and will be intent on shutting the run down and forcing the Bears to pass. They should be able to achieve this, as the Bears' running backs are alright, but not stellar. The Bears have Booker, Davis, and Lloyd to throw to. The Bucs' secondary should be able to handle this group assuming Talib can go. If they have to rely on Hamilton, that could be a soft spot on three wides, but they could also rotate Jackson down to corner and leave Phillips and Sabby at Safety. Brooks should be in better shape to go for this game as well, which will help. This is where the Bucs should be able to win this game, our defense vs. their offense. If the Bucs shut them down, as they should, then the Bears are going to have to rely on their defense to score. The Bears have just one pick and one fumble. If the Bucs don't turn the ball over, I have a hard time seeing the Bears score more than 10 points in this game as their offense just doesn't look that imposing. The defense should be able to keep them from scoring much, and that will be the difference in this game.

On Special Teams, the Bucs come in averaging 5 yards per punt return, and 20.7 per kick return, while allowing 10.6 per punt and 16.8 per kick. The punt return yardage is misleading as the Bucs have only allowed yardage on one punt return, which went for 37 yards. The Bears are averaging 9.2 on punt returns and 21.2 on kick returns, while allowing 10.5 on punts and 19.6 on kicks. With Hester not likely to play, those return numbers should drop for the Bears. It looks like these units will be matched up pretty evenly, except for the Bucs' punt returns, where Jackson needs to get going, but needs some better blocking up front to help facilitate that. The kickers appear to be on par, but the Bucs have the better punter. I don't think we are going to see too many highlights out of either team in this department, but, unless Hester plays, the Bucs have the better potential due to what Jackson can do when he gets some space. Getting that space is the big problem.

In the end, having seen how the Bears have actually played so far this year, I'm starting to question whether they really are all that good down the stretch. I'm starting to think not, and I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the Bucs will win this game by getting just enough offense to go with a very good defensive effort to shut the Bears down.

Bucs 17 Bears 10