The Talking Plank - Week 5

The Talking Plank - Week 5





Bucs At Broncos:

The Bucs get to go to Mile High and face a highly prolific offense, and a crappy defense. Who will prevail in the battle of heavy breathing? The Broncos were looking great until the sorry Chiefs knocked them off last week. Meanwhile the Bucs, having given up yet another lead (thanks Griese!), beat the Packers, and look to try and get to 4-1. This is a game I really have reservations about for the Bucs, but let's look at how the match-up is currently shaping after the first 4 games of the season.

On Offense, the Bucs come in ranked 7th in total yards (361y/g), 13th in points (25.2/g), 9th in passing (227.2y/g), and 9th rushing (133.8y/g). The Broncos' defense comes in ranked 30th in total yards allowed (408.8y/g), 29th in points allowed (29.2/g), 31st againt the pass (276y/g), and 24th against the run (132.8y/g). This is the one area where the Bucs should be OK. The Bucs will be going up against a defensive line that has recorded just 2 sacks this season (the teams they have played have given up 32 sacks this season with the Raiders giving up 10 and the Chiefs giving up 12). The defensive line has struggled to shut the run down as well. The Broncos' linebackers are so-so with former Bucs Nate Webster starting at MLB (we know how good he was there - rolling my eyes). Needless to say, teams are beating a secondary that has a couple of good corners by allowing their QB to stay upright for extended periods of time, and being able to run the ball and force safety help in the box. I cringe to think what could happen with Griese throwing balls in the direction of Champ and Bly, but he should have plenty of time to exploit other match-ups. This is a game where the receivers can get some balls by continuing routes, or breaking them off and finding a hole to squat in, as Griese should be upright for most of the game. This also looks like the type of defense that will struggle containing Graham and Dunn without consistently putting 8 and 9 men in the box. Barring another slew of turnovers (the Broncos have one pick this season), the offense should be able to move the ball at will on the Broncos' defense, and probably score a lot of points. I expect the Bucs' offense will put up over 30 points in this game.

On Defense, the Bucs come in ranked 13th in total yards allowed (314.5y/g), 10th in points allowed (19.5/g), 21st against the pass (216.5y/g), and 12th against the run (98y/g). The Broncos come in with the top rated offense (435.5y/g), 2nd in points (33.2/g), 2nd passing (314.2y/g), and 14th rushing (121.2y/g). This is the one area that concerns me the most in this game. The Bucs' have had a recent problem with big plays. It's not happening a lot, but 1-3 per game is hurting them a lot, and the Broncos' certainly have the firepower to do it. Royals, WR, may be slowed a little with an ankle injury, but he makes me a little nervous. The Bucs' secondary played quite well last week except for two big plays for TD's. If the Bucs give up those plays this week, it could be a long game for them. The defense should be able to handle Young, Hall, and Pittman in the running game. None of those backs really scare me against our defense, as long as we aren't constantly dropping people back in coverage. What could help is what the Chiefs, who run a version of the Tampa 2, did last week. Monte likely got a lot of valuable information on how to attack the Broncos. Getting Cutler rattled is the big key. He's only been sacked twice this season, so if the Bucs can find a way to get in his face a lot, he will throw picks. It's the nature of the way he tries to fit passes into coverage. I think the Bucs' defense will slow the Broncos' down, but I don't see them stopping them all game. A couple of turnovers could go a long way in this game.

On Special Teams, the Bucs and Broncos will be going to battle with punters and kickers of similar ability. It's in the return game that we could see some differences. The Bucs are returning kicks and punts at a rate of 23.1 yards for kicks, and 5 yards for punts. The Bucs are allowing only 18.9 yards per kick, but they are also allowing 9.9 yards per punt. The Broncos, on the other hand, are returning for 22.1 yards on kicks, and 16.6 yards on punts. They are allowing teams to return kicks for 28.1 yards, and punts for 7 yards. The real problem for the Bucs will be on punt coverage where they are weak and the Broncos are very strong. I wouldn't mind seeing Bidwell punt out of bounds to limit the damage. The kick off game, however, looks to be strongly in the Bucs' favor. So field position off kicks should favor the Bucs in this game. I do believe that we will continue to see Jackson get better and better, and wouldn't be shocked if he returned a punt or kick for a TD. Let's just hope the Bucs don't give up a Special Teams TD.

I'm having a hard time with this prediction. I predicted a Broncos' win in my season predictions. I still see that as the most likely outcome. But I can't help but think that our defense, which is a very good one, can rise to the occasion much more likely than the Broncos' defense can, and that's where I'm getting stuck on this prediction. I really never anticipated the Broncos' defense being this bad (they are bad!). I think our defense will have its hands full, but I think they will make more stops than the Broncos' defense will, and that is where my prediction of a Bucs' win is now coming from...a change from a position I've held even up to the last couple of days.

Bucs 35 Broncos 24