The Talking Plank - Week 2

The Talking Plank - Week 2: Bucs At Falcons:




After such an ugly game last week, many have been ready to string Simms, Gruden, or both, from a tree. However, let us not forget that the Bucs have historically come back from brutal beatings to win the following week, including twice last year after the Panthers and Patriots games. Both times the Bucs were soundly beaten and looked to be going nowhere, only to come roaring back and continue on to the playoffs. With the Falcons having spanked the Panthers, both teams looked poised for reality checks. One team isn't as bad as they looked, and the other isn't as good. So what will the result be this week?

On Offense, the Bucs will be going against a defense that's a little banged up. And while the Falcons' defense has always given the Panthers problems when the cats couldn't run effectively, the Falcons' defense has never been stellar against the Bucs. With the pick-up of John Abraham, the Falcons looked poised to maybe turn that around. They also added big (but starting to slow) Grady Jackson to the DT spot. But they still have Coleman, at 285 lbs. at the other DT spot, to go with Kerney at the other DE. Abraham hurt his groin and hasn't practiced all week. Since it's the same groin muscle he pulled in '03, I don't think he will play, and would struggle if he did. Even if he played full strength, he wasn't very effective against the Bucs last year with the Jets. Coleman is too small, and Jackson has been ineffective against us with the Packers last year and the Saints in '02. Davis is likely to replace Abraham, and he was ineffective against us two years ago. I just don't see the Falcons getting great push against our line when we attempt to run the ball. Caddy appears to be ready to go, having returned to practice on Friday stating he felt fine. Back spasms can quickly go away if there's no actual muscle or nerve issues, which the MRI did not show. If he can't go it will be up to Pittman, Alstott, and Graham to get the running game going. The Bucs must make a concerted effort to run against the Falcons, since I think they can. The Falcons also look to be without Hartwell at MLB. And, while DeAngelo Hall looks to go, he did fail to practice on Friday with a thigh injury, and that could slow him down, allowing Galloway to beat him deep. The Falcons did pick up Lawyer Milloy at Safety, but he wasn't very effective against us last year (with the Bills), and Crocker plays next to him. With Buenning likely ready to go, the Bucs should be able to run left again. Whether or not they can go right is hard to say. If Terry is still in there, I say yes, but that may effect the pass protection. I see Gruden running the ball 30+ times in this game and letting Simms get time to hit the bigger plays with Galloway and Clayton taking advantage of a hobbled back 7. With Hartwell out, Smith might find some good space in the intermediate middle to really force the Falcons to spread wide, and that will only feed the running game more. The offense should be much more effective this week.

On Defense, the Bucs will be looking to tighten up against the Falcons and show that last week's opening drive was just a bit of a fluke. The Bucs' defense knows the Falcons quite well, and, without Duckett to pound the Bucs in the middle, they'll be able to concentrate on flying to the ball and shutting down Dunn and Vick in the running game. The Bucs will also be prepared for the cut-blocking of the Falcons' offensive line. In the passing game, the Bucs will be looking to put a lot more pressure on Vick this year than last, when the Bucs pass rush was one of the worst in Monte's tenure here. Against the Ravens, the Bucs got a lot of pressure at times, but just had problems getting all the way to McNair and taking him down. The Falcons' offensive line is much, much smaller than the Ravens (where only the Center was under 320 lbs.). The Bucs should get a lot more pressure on the Falcons, and Vick only completed 45% of his passes against the Panthers, despite not being pressured a ton (though he was sacked once). And while Roddy White fooled the Bucs' defense in the first game last year, the Bucs clamped down on him in the second. Price is gone, leaving the Falcons with, really, just 2 wide receiving threats (White and Jenkins). The other main threat in the passing game is Crumpler, who killed us in the first game last year, but who was then shut down with just 1 pass for 5 yards in the second game. Look for the Bucs to really clamp down hard on him. The biggest key for the Bucs is to shut the running game down early and get a lot of heat on Vick in the passing game, while making sure Crumpler doesn't run around freely. If they can do that, it will be a long day for the Falcons' offense.

On Special Teams, the Bucs and Falcons are pretty even on kick and punt returns as well as in the kicking and punting games, though we have the better punter. Pittman, despite not yet getting into a groove and finding the running lanes, managed to return kickoffs at nearly 25 yards a clip, and the Bucs rarely started from inside their own 25, a far cry from last year. Jones was pretty effective in the punt return department, getting 9.4 yards a return. The Bucs will have to stop Allen Rossum who averaged 29 yard per kick, and 9.7 yards per punt. If the Bucs can lay the wood into him, they'll slow him down, but they can't afford to have a breakdown here and let the Falcons get good field position. This area of the game could decide the winner. I'll say this, if Pittman can learn to stop running into the pile, and just cut into the voids, he could break some long returns.

What I see in this game is a Bucs' team desperate to get back to winning, and they are about to face a team that traditionally doesn't match-up well against them, and one that's missing some key players. As a result, I expect the Bucs to really stand up and take it to the Falcons and walk out of their with a victory. If, however, Gruden abandons the run, the Bucs will lose again. I don't think that will happen this week. I'm sticking to my earlier score prediction.

Bucs 24 Falcons 17