The Talking Plank - Week 16

The Talking Plank -





Panthers At Bucs:

Yeah, yeah, been too busy to update on last week's dominate loss (what the...not another Detroit game!). Needless to say, it gets kind of hard to predict games when you start playing them like a preseason contest, and this game is likely to be the same thing. With Galloway out, and with Graham, Hilliard, and White likely to rest, not too mention Stovall out for the year, the Bucs are likely to have one of those "interesting" games that you just aren't sure how things will turn out for them. Needless to say, I'm sure the Bucs would prefer to win going in, and this is definitely a team they are capable of beating, even with a slightly lesser cast of players available.

On Offense, the Bucs come in ranked 18th in total yards (328.4/g), 18th in points scored (20.7/g) , 16th in passing yards (210.7/g), and 11th in rushing yardage (117.7/g). They will face the Panthers' 16th ranked defense in yards allowed (326.3/g), 17th in points allowed (21.6/g), 15th against the pass (215.3y/g), and 18th against the run (110.9y/g). Overall, the Bucs offense has an edge against a performance enhancement free defensive line that has barely racked up sacks this season. In fact the entire defense only has 19 total sacks and failed to get one against the Bucs the last time out. The Bucs offensive line is coming off one of it's poorest performances this season, and likely will be out to reclaim what they lost last week. Graham is not likely to play, but if he does, it will likely be limited, which means that Bennett will likely see a lot of action, and the Bucs will want to repeat their 189 yard rushing performance from the week 4 match-up. With Davis and Diggs looking very beatable on the edges, and a rookie in the middle, the Bucs should be able to re-establish the running game, especially on the edges where Bennett excels. They should also be able to exploit match-up issues when they put their TE's in to patterns on the LB's. With Galloway out, Clayton will become the primary receiver (he more often plays Galloway's position when Joey is out, than Hilliard does), and either Hilliard, or someone else, will compliment him. Hilliard may or may not rest this game. Spurlock will probably get some more looks at receiver, and Lucas and Clark may also get some shots, but don't be shocked if the Bucs are running Stevens at one wide out spot on occasion, as well as Smith and Bennett. All three can cause some interesting match-up problems depending on the play. How long Garcia plays, if he even does, is hard to say. McCown will undoubtedly play the majority of the game, and should be able to exploit a Harris-free secondary. With Harris likely out (listed as doubtful), the Panthers will really be hurting on defense as they have already lost Peppers to IR. The Panthers are big in the middle, but they aren't likely to get much of a pass rush without bringing the LB's (who have 5.5 of their D's 19 sacks) in on blitzes. With Harris unable to come up to support the run, the Panthers will be hard pressed to find a way to defend the targets we still have available to throw at them. They will likely try to stop the run by over committing. Luke will have to take advantage of the secondary to open it back up. If the Panthers fail to get pressure, and Luke can find and hit the open receiver, the Bucs should be able to move the ball pretty well most of the game. I look for Clayton to have a big game, and pull in around 7-10 balls as he will likely be the best receiver out there. The Bucs may not be able to rack up big yards on the ground, but it should be enough, with a possible home run hit or two by Bennett, to keep the Panthers on defense and score some points, though not likely a lot.

On Defense, the Bucs come in ranked 2nd overall in yards allowed (273.7/g), 1st in points allowed (15.9/g), 2nd against the pass (170.6y/g), and 13th against the run (103.1y/g). The Panthers come in with the 30th ranked offense in yards (280.7/g), 29th in points scored (15.7/g), 29th in passing yards (171.1/g), and 17th rushing (109.6y/g). The Bucs could be without White which could impact their pass rush. The Panthers have given up 32 sacks this year, which is decent, but the Bucs should be able to find a way to get after Moore by first stopping the run, then getting after the rookie QB. If the Bucs stop the run, it could turn into a turn-over fest, as Moore will have to pass against one of the best defenses in the league. Smith and Colbert can be weapons, but the Bucs found a way to shut them down last time, and probably will make it just as difficult this time around. The Bucs will likely contain Foster and Williams and make it that much tougher on Moore, especially with the Bucs' penchant for disguising their cover 2 and cover 3 looks, making it a tough read for even veteran QB's. The Panthers' best hope is to see a lot of the back-ups early. That might give them an edge, but, then again, it might not. The Panthers' offense just hasn't been all that good this year, and there's no reason to believe that it's going to change in the last game of the season. Look for the Panthers' offense to have a long day.

On Special Teams, the Bucs are averaging 24.3 and 6.5 yards per kick and punt return. One is very good, while the other is piss poor. They are allowing 19.2 and 7.2 yards per kick and punt return, both of which are solid numbers. Their opponent is getting 18.7 and 8.3 yards per kick and punt return (respectable on punts, pathetic on kicks), while allowing 24.6 and 10.4 yards per kick and punt. Their coverage teams aren't very good, and the Bucs may be able to exploit this area to set up some shorter fields. Spurlock should be able to rip off a big return on any kick offs that are made. The punt return game is an entirely different issue, and one that could hurt the Bucs if they don't find someone who can get it done (could we try sticking with Spurlock and leave Buchannon on defense!!). Both teams have solid punters and kickers.

Overall, I see this as one of those toss-up games that could get down-right ugly. The Panthers are actually 4-3 on the road, and could possibly steal this meaningless contest. However, I think the Bucs have every intent on just burying the Panthers and going into the playoffs with a win, and I think we have enough depth to get it done, especially if we can jump out to an early lead.

Bucs 17 Panthers 10